When it comes to constructing your daily fantasy football team, wide receiver is crucial.
Having a strong wide receiver can either make or break your team. The wide receiver I’m going to talk about is Percy Harvin, and whether or not he’s a player you want representing your squad on the weekends.
The 26 year-old wide receiver from the Seattle Seahawks is telling people he is in the best shape of his life.
“This is probably the best I’ve felt since before college,” says Harvin.
These words speak volumes since Harvin finished his college career at Florida with 133 receptions, 1,930 receiving yards, 1,851 rushing yards, and 32 touchdowns.
Taking a look at the recent numbers for Harvin, he’s still impressive. His NEP (next expected points) proves this. For those of you who aren’t sure what this stat means, don’t worry, I’m here for you. An NEP is a statistic that measures how many expected point above or below the league-average a player has gained his team. When it comes to receivers, it can be measured both as a function of catches and targets. Much like a catch rate, which is the simple statistic measured by the number of balls thrown the receiver’s way compared to the catches that are actually caught.
Still with me?
Percy Harvin’s NEP for receiving was a 63.47, which may seem honest, but you have to compare it to an 89.57 back in 2009. You also have to take into account a few years have gone by, and he’s no longer with the Minnesota Vikings. I am excited to see what he does with Russell Wilson in 2014.
Last season, Harvin struggled to stay on the field (missing 15 games) with a hip injury and a concussion. He was practically a ghost until the Super Bowl, where he promptly made his presence known and reminded the world of his famous explosiveness. He opened up the second-half of the big game with an 87-yard kickoff return touchdown to help his team run away with the trophy.
It’s difficult to measure Harvin’s numbers from last year, as he was limited to one catch for 17 yards during the regular season. He didn’t give us much to work with.
However, when it comes to Seattle as a whole, their weighted offense makes the top 10 with a mark of 8.7%. A weighted offense is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become less important. It more or less reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
It’s safe to say Harvin will be stepping into an offense already humming on all cylinders, unlike his days in Minnesota.
However, let’s stop living in the past and talk about what Harvin brings to the table this season.
During recent OTA’s, Harvin has been showing signs of successes. According to a Fox News report, he is finally “getting fully integrated into Seattle’s offense.”
Richard Sherman had something to say (shocking, I know) about Harvin as well.
“Percy is spending a lot more time out there so that is bringing a new element of speed,” says Sherman. “Our offense is coming up with some cool concepts. It’s a fun little chess game out there.”
According to NFL.com, the Seahawks are keeping Harvin rested sporadically. They also plan to make sure he doesn’t practice three consecutive days during camp. I realize all of this “resting news” could make a daily fantasy football owner feel uneasy about drafting Harvin, but that’s unnecessary as this is simply routine maintenance.
While the 2013 numbers are relatively non-existent, the 2012 numbers are there. Harvin’s defense-adjusted yards above replacement landed at a 124, which is above average. That number is far from “elite”, but also comes paired with a silly 73% catch rate.
When you look at his last full season played in 2011 though, a brilliant picture begins to emerge. That season, Harvin totaled 87 receptions for 967 yards. He also added 342 rushing yards, averaging an insane 6.7 YPC. His DYAR was 145, ranking 29th in the league, but his catch rate was once again an absurd number; 72%. He only managed 8 total offensive touchdowns though, but it was in large part due to the futility of the Minnesota offense. Given the upgrade in surroundings, it’s reasonable to assume all his totals from 2011 could be headed for a boost.
I can honestly say a daily matchup between Percy Harvin and just about anyone will be phenomenal.
CBS Sports’ Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg gave their projections recently.
Richard says Harvin will have 62 catches this season with 748 receiving yards, Eisenberg gave him a bit more credit with 73 catches and 892 yards. I’m going more towards Eisenberg’s numbers, and words cannot explain how excited I am to see Harvin tear up the field and help your daily fantasy football teams. I should probably say my team as well, because I will definitely be selecting him often this daily fantasy football season.
He’s finally healthy, and I can imagine he has a lot of pent up energy built from watching on the sidelines. I can see him working very well with Russell Wilson and making an impact for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Do I think you should spend up for astronomical price tag right away? No. But I can see him being your number two wideout to start the year. I have the utmost confidence in this guy. He may not bring 2009 numbers, or Florida numbers, but he still has time to make an impact on the NFL. I feel like I have a schoolgirl crush on Harvin fantasy-wise this season, and I can’t wait for his performance.