Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks to Click 5-27-2014
Studs and scrubs are the name of the game with tonight’s fantasy baseball expert daily picks.

For only $7,350 you can’t afford to pass on Cody Ross at DraftDay.
The price of pitching is steep if you want the elite arms on the bump tonight, as in 20-plus percent of your budget pricey. I might not be the best managing a real life budget, but I can pass along some budget conscious pitching options that will be well worth their cost today, and each starting pitcher costs under $17,000. Beyond the arms, today’s article has a stars and scrubs feel to it with many expensive position players littered throughout. There are extremely cheap options with favorable matchups sprinkled in to offset the big guns.
All salaries listed are for DraftDay player pricing.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Pitchers
My Pick: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels, $16,350
Weaver continues to truck along pitching like an ace despite lackluster radar gun readings, and you know what, that’s okay by me. His advanced measures of pitching, such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA suggest he’s been lucky, but that’s always been the case. The right-handed starter issues few free passes (7.3 percent walk rate), keeps the ball in the yard, and has a low BABIP that would seem lucky if he didn’t post low BABIPs year-after-year. He’s facing a Mariners lineup that ranks in the bottom third of the league in OPS. Toss in the fact that today’s game is being played at home run suppressing Safeco Field and I’ll gladly save a few thousand dollars rolling with Weaver.
Value Pick: Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins, $14,950
I’ve been reluctant to buy into Hughes, but his resume is becoming all the more impressive with each passing start. Opposing pitcher Yu Darvish isn’t ideal for his chances of picking up a win, but the Rangers offense backing the club’s ace isn’t the juggernaut of past seasons. The 27-years old Hughes has reeled off six straight quality starts, and hasn’t walked a single batter in his last five turns. Hughes’ apparent allergy to walks has him ranked fifth among qualified starters in walk rate with a dental floss thin 2.7 percent mark. He’s backing his eye popping walk rate with a slightly better than league average 20.9 percent strikeout rate, and his plate discipline numbers support his surface stats. Hughes’ flyball tendencies will be no problem today since he’s pitching at home. At under $15,000 he’s a sweet second starter for DraftDay squads.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Catchers
My Pick: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Miami Marlins, $8,000
The Marlins’ big expenditure in the offseason, all one year and $4.5 million, was Salty. The switch-hitting catcher has been well worth the price of employment, and his bat is at its best when he’s serving as a left-handed hitter against right-handed pitchers. Today he’ll be taking his cuts against young right-handed starter Blake Treinen. He’s away from his spacious home ballpark and instead in Washington where the hitting environment is much more favorable. Since 2011 Saltalamacchia has 1,006 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, and has hit .256/.323/.493 with a 119 wRC+.
Value Pick: Jason Castro, Houston Astros, $6,300
It’s hard to get past Castro’s .229/.301/.386 slash line this year, but I assure you not all is bad. The good starts with him slotting third or fourth in the Astros lineup in every game in which he’s played this year, which is obviously ideal for run production. His line drive rate is once again good this year, as it has been every year he’s been in the majors. He’s not giving away outs with infield flyballs very often, which is again nothing new for Castro. Contact issues plague him, but when he’s making contact his batted ball profile suggests it is good contact. Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie isn’t one for missing bats, and that plays right into the veteran catcher’s hands.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - First Basemen
My Pick: Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks, $10,850
The Diamondbacks are in the midst of a horrific season, but the fault certainly can’t be cast Goldschmidt’s way. The 2013 National League MVP runner up has a 136 wRC+ in 235 plate appearances. The right-handeder is a handful for southpaws, and he’s even better against them at home. In 455 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers Goldschmidt has hit .314/.396/.589 with a 160 wRC+. His wRC+ nudges up to 162 when he’s facing them at home. Eric Stults, notorious for his struggles against right-handed batters (.340 wOBA against for the 1,673 he’s faced), is no match for Goldy.
Value Pick: Gaby Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates, $6,600
The addition of Ike Davis to the Pirates has allowed them to run a nifty platoon, and it’s Sanchez’s turn today with southpaw Jonathan Niese opposing the Buccos. The right-handed hitting first baseman has 596 plate appearances against lefties while hitting a sizzling .301/.396/.501 with a 146 wRC+. Notice how surprisingly similar that line is to that of the more heralded first baseman I highlighted above. The biggest knock on using a platoon partner like Sanchez is that he’s liable to face a right-handed reliever late in the game, or be lifted for a pinch hitter should that situation arise. At less that $7,000, the prospect of facing a right-handed reliever or getting pulled late isn’t enough to deter me from using him.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Second Basemen
My Pick: Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels, $8,350
The sweet swinging Kendrick is yet another right-handed batter who will be facing a southpaw today. The Angels starting second baseman is hitting .303/.379/.415 this year with a 128 wRC+, and he’s gobbling up ground on the basepaths swiping nine stolen bases in 11 chances. He doesn’t have a dramatic platoon split like some of the other options I’m suggesting today, but he has been better against lefties and I love his batted ball profile versus them in his career. In 1,204 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers he has a tiny infield flyball rate of 1.6 percent, and FanGraphs data indicates he hasn’t skied out in the infield since 2010. He’s also not giving away outs with strikeouts as his 15.8 percent K rate is quite acceptable. His 21.1 percent line drive rate looks mighty fine, too. Mariners starter Roenis Elias won’t be getting any cheap outs against Kendrick today.
Value Pick: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers, $7,250
Weeks is no longer an everyday second baseman now that Scooter Gennett is on the club, but he’s proven to be quite the platoon mate against lefties. Interestingly enough, a sky high BABIP has buoyed his season line against right-handed pitchers above that of lefties, but his career numbers tell the true story. The 31-year old Weeks has 1,163 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, and has hit .262/.386/.441 with a 126 wRC+ against them. He’s more than willing to take a free pass with a 14.5 percent walk rate, and playing at Miller Park tonight will amplify his power potential due to its 121 right-handed batter home run park factor.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Third Basemen
My Pick: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays, $10,150
When a lefty is facing Longoria, I take notice. Mark Buehrle’s shiny 8-and-1 record has gotten plenty attention from the media, and his 2.16 ERA is quite impressive. An unsustainable homer rate has aided him greatly though. The other shoe will drop at some point, and that could be today at the homer friendly Rogers Centre. Right-handed batters have a home run park factor of 118 in Toronto, and Longoria’s power outage this season seems more flukey than alarming. I think Longoria and Buehrle kill two birds with one stone, or baseball if you prefer, and both see regression towards their career mean tonight! Longo has 1,027 plate appearances against lefties in his career and hit .288/.377/.545 with a 146 wRC+.
Value Pick: Martin Prado, Arizona Diamondbacks, $7,700
Prado has hit zero homers and stolen zero bases. Not exactly the type of information that screams he must be used today. That said, for all of his struggles this year the right-handed hitter hasn’t forgotten how to terrorize his opposite-handed pitching counterparts. His 34 plate appearances against southpaws are shall we say a small sample size, but he’s hitting .355/.382/.484 with a 134 wRC+. That 134 wRC+ is a carbon copy of last year’s mark, and one point lower than the 135 one he posted in 2011. I’ll concede that some BABIP luck has helped Prado against southpaws, but I’m willing to look past that with crummy Stults starting. The Diamondbacks lineup should rough up the Padres starter.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Shortstops
My Pick: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, $9,000
I’m lukewarm on this Bogaerts endorsement, but five figures is too much to pay for the elite shortstops. The rookie has been much better against lefties than righties in his brief major league career, but he won’t be facing a southpaw today. A look back at his minor league numbers leads me to believe his initial platoon split is a blip on the radar. Since 2011 Bogaerts has faced 975 right-handed pitchers in the minors, and has hit a healthy .301/.369/.512 according to Minor League Central. DraftDay gamers can feel pretty good about using Bogaerts, but I much prefer saving some dollars and using my value pick instead.
Value Pick: Yunel Escobar, Tampa Bay Rays, $6,600
There is no value in spending heavily at shortstop, therefore Escobar is a no-brainer pick for dumpster divers. With Buehrle starting against the Rays, Escobar is in a favorable situation. The right-handed batting shortstop has been a roughly average hitter against right-handed pitchers in his career with a 99 wRC+. In 1,159 plate appearances against southpaws though he has a 107 wRC+. He’s not the annihilator of left-handed pitchers that others in today’s article are, but an above average offensive player at a position sorely lacking looks good when he costs a mere pittance.
Fantasy Baseball Expert Daily Picks - Outfielders
My Pick: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates $11,800
McCutchen is a do-it-all stud, and his price reflects that. When he’s facing a lefty he kicks it up a notch though, and eliminates any need for sticker shock. The 27-year old outfielder and reigning National League MVP has 746 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in his big league career. What he’s done against them is nothing short of remarkable, hitting .338/.428/.588 with a 177 wRC+ and more walks, 99, than strikeouts, 96. Pass on McCutchen today at your own peril.
Value Pick: Cody Ross, Arizona Diamondbacks, $7,350
Manager Kirk Gibson inexplicably uses Ross as an everyday player, and I thank him from the bottom of my heart. Ross has no business seeing regular playing time against right-handed pitchers, but because he does, his overall line is in the toilet and his cost in DraftDay games is minimal. The right-handed hitting outfielder is a stud against southpaws, though. Ross has been in the majors since 2003 and only once posted a wRC+ below 120 once, and that was a 98 wRC+ in 2011. In his career he has 1,049 plate appearances against lefties and has hit a staggering .298/.363/.572 with 145 wRC+. He’s a secret weapon buried among the outfielders, and he’s a bargain too good to pass up.
* Batted ball data and splits information comes from that which is provided at FanGraphs unless otherwise stated, and ballpark factors are those found at StatCorner and are for a three-year rolling average.
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