Fantasy Football Picks to Click- Week 15
As the regular season winds down, these fantasy football picks to click will help you cash in BIG Week 15!
Quarterbacks
Top Pick: Peyton Manning (DEN), $14,900 @ (SD)
It doesn’t feel like it can be real life with Manning priced at under $15,000. The Sheriff ranks fourth in passing yards, seventh in Pro Football Focus (PFF) QB Rating, and tied for first in passing touchdowns. In addition to his gaudy passing stats and reasonable cost, DFS gamers have to like what Vegas thinks. Vegas Insider has the Broncos as a four point favorite in a game with a 50.5 point betting total. The Broncos have demonstrated a more balanced offense with C.J. Anderson in the backfield, but facing a Chargers defense that PFF ranks 16th in pass coverage and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks 25th defending the pass should yield a hearty fantasy point total for Manning.
Value Pick: Derek Anderson (CAR), $7,500 vs (TB)
I went back-and-forth between Johnny Manziel and Anderson for the value pick. Ultimately the softer matchup for Anderson tilted the scale in his favor. The former starting quarterback for the Browns and Cardinals has held the clipboard serving as Cam Newton’s backup most of this year. His lone start came in the season opener, and coincidentally, that was against the Buccaneers. He’ll get another start this week against the same giving Bucs’ defense. PFF ranks the them 26th in pass coverage and FO ranks them 22nd defending the pass. The bar is exceptionally low for Anderson to earn his keep on DFS rosters, and facing a giving pass defense should help him easily clear it.
Running Backs
Top Pick: Matt Forte (CHI), $14,650 vs (NO)
This pick was something of a no brainer. Forte ranks third among all players in yards from scrimmage, and compared to other running backs he’s the leader of the pack in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. His receiving skills should be put to even more use than usual with Brandon Marshall sidelined for the remainder of the season. He is also facing a Saints defense that FO ranks dead least defending running backs in the passing game. Speaking of ranking dead last, the Saints also rank there defending the run according to FO, making Forte even more tantalizing than he already was as a pass catching behemoth.
Value Pick: Chris Ivory (NYJ), $7,000 @ (TEN)
Geno Smith is quite clearly terrible at quarterbacking, and that should mean another heavy dose of the run for the Jets this week. As if Smith’s shortcomings as a signal caller wasn’t incentive enough to lean on the run, facing a Titans run defense that PFF ranks last and FO ranks 28th provide further reason to lean on Ivory and former Titan Chris Johnson early and often. Both backs have received at least 16 carries in the Jets past two games, and more of the same should be in order this week. Ivory is the more talented of the two backs, and playing for the lowly Jets has kept his star from shining brightly for all the NFL fans to see. Ivory is a hard runner who ranks tied for 11th with 2.6 YCo/Att among backs that have played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, and he ranks fourth in PFF’s Elusive Rating among backs that have 25% or more of their team’s carries. In other words, he’s a load too great for a horrific Titans run defense to handle.
Wide Receivers
Top Pick: Odell Beckham Jr (NYG), $13,550 vs (WAS)
Beckham Jr has not only been extremely productive, but he’s also been extremely consistent. The rookie wide out has six or more receptions and 90 or more yards receiving in six straight games. Beckham missed the entire month of September, or the first four weeks of the NFL season if you prefer. Since week five, his first game, OBJ ranks ninth in targets, tied for sixth in receptions, seventh in receiving yards,and tied for 11th in touchdown grabs at the wide receiver position. The LSU product has been a stud in year one and he’ll have a cake matchup against a Washington defense that PFF ranks last in coverage and FO ranks last in pass defense. Furthermore, FO ranks Washington 30th defending number one wide receivers.
Value Pick: Sammy Watkins (BUF), $8,400 vs (GB)
Volume and price point are the name of the game with the Watkins tout. The man the Bills traded this year’s first round pick and next year’s first to move up and select is 15th among wide receivers in targets and far and away the targets leader for the Bills with 106. Even with bad quarterbacks throwing him the football, and thus, hurting his catch percentage, Watkins has still managed to reel in 58 catches for 822 yards receiving and five touchdowns. The Bills are somewhat surprisingly, at least to me, only a 4.5 point underdog against the Packers, and with a total of 50.5 points, that should leave plenty of points to be scored for Watkins if the game plays out the way the gambling line suggests. Watkins should provide fits for a Packers pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack.
Tight Ends
Top Pick: Rob Gronkowski (NE), $14,000 vs (MIA)
Gronk is easily the class of the tight end position leading the way in targets, receiving yards, and YPRR and ranking second in receptions and touchdown grabs. FO ranks the Dolphins as the best defense at stopping tight ends, but Gronk is from another planet, and if you’re going to pony up for a good one, there is little reason to skimp a couple thousand and change for a handful of clearly inferior options.
Value Pick: Delanie Walker (TEN), $8,650 vs (NYJ)
If you are going to bypass spending on Gronkowski, you not only need to save money, but nab a guy with some upside. Walker provides both savings and upside facing a Jets defense that FO ranks last defending tight ends. Walker’s no slouch either. He ranks fifth at the position in targets, 10th in receptions, fourth in receiving yards, and seventh in YPRR. The betting total is low, and the game is likely to be ugly, but Walker looks like one of the few bright spots in a battle of non-contenders.