Fantasy Basketball Picks 1-7-14
These fantasy basketball picks will help you attack tonight’s MONSTER slate of NBA action!
If you played last night’s two-game slate, you may have realized how frustrating roster overlap is. I’m thrilled to have an enormous 13-game slate tonight, so let’s kick things off with a quick recap from Monday. Kevin Love (57.25) was the monster that we all expected he would be, and Draymond Green (44.75) continued his impressive play, despite just 29 minutes of court time in a blowout. Kevin Durant (32.75) was awful by his standards, but likely didn’t kill your lineups. Trey Burke was a late scratch due to an illness, and Donald Sloan‘s production (13.75) was shattered by C.J. Watson‘s return to the court. Jusuf Nurkic (33) continued to dominate down low, as he was once again a tremendous value. Evan Turner (13.50) made damn sure nobody could predict when he would play well by posting yet another dud.
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player, and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. Keep in mind that a minimum-priced player on DraftDay is even more valuable than a minimum-salary player elsewhere, due to the large gap in pricing with a $100,000 cap.
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Kemba Walker ($15,100) vs New Orleans – Walker is undoubtedly the heart and soul of the Hornets offense with Al Jefferson on the shelf. He has at least 28 actual points in 4 of his last six games, and has played at least 39 minutes in 5 of those six contests. Vegas has this one pegged as a close game, with New Orleans currently listed as a 4.5 point favorite. I’m not concerned about the low total (193.5), because of Kemba’s enormous role in the offense. He should be one of the top PG scorers tonight, and draws a favorable matchup against a Pelicans team that ranks 20th in the NBA vs PG.
Patrick Beverley ($10,450) at Cleveland – Kyrie Irving is returning tonight, which may be even better news for Beverley. He is an under-appreciated player in DFS, and I love rostering him because he can stuff the stat sheet in a myriad of ways. He is more of a GPP play because of his erratic scoring, but he averages 4.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.4 made 3-pointers per contest. On a site like DraftDay with bonuses for 3-pointers, his value is even higher. Kyrie Irving is an average defender at best, and the Rockets will need Beverley to play big minutes in hopes of slowing him down.
Mo Williams ($10,100) vs Phoenix – The Timberwolves are an awful team right now, and their offensive options have been few and far between. However, with the emergence of Andrew Wiggins, as well as improved play by Thaddeus Young, they have looked more competitive at times, and have opened up more opportunities for assists. Enter Williams, an experienced PG who has been sharing time with rookie Zach LaVine. Williams is the much better offensive player at this stage, and drew the start on Monday against Denver, posting a 17/7/4 line. Assuming he draws the start tonight, he will be a great target in a game with a 217 point total against a Suns team that ranks 15th in the NBA vs PG.
Arron Afflalo ($10,550) vs Orlando - If you’re a fan of #NarrativeStreet, then you’re going to love this one. Afflalo returned to Denver this year following a 2-year stint in Orlando, and he has nothing but great things to say about the organization. With that being said, Afflalo is on fire, having scored 57 points on 19/30 shooting over his last two games, and now draws a matchup with a player that he mentored in Orlando (Victor Oladipo). I’m riding the hot streak here. I like Afflalo to fly under the radar and have a nice game against his former team.
Forward:
Kevin Durant ($18,500) at Sacramento - Durant is coming off of his worst performance of the season against the Warriors, where he shot 3/16, but still managed a double-double and 32.75 FP. The important thing to realize is that a game like that is as bad as it can get for the reigning MVP. Rudy Gay and the Kings rank 12th against opposing SF, but I’m not buying into that ranking much tonight. OKC is a solid 7.5 point favorite in a game with a 211.5 total. Durant is going to come out firing tonight. The Thunder can’t afford to take their foot off the gas in this one after an embarrassing loss against the Warriors. I fully expect Durant to be the top overall scorer tonight, and he still comes at a discount.
Joe Ingles ($5,350) at Chicago - Heat me out on this one. The Jazz are decimated with injuries right now, and Ingles has stepped up, with 19, 19.75, and 31.25 FP in his last 3 games. He posted a 9/8/7 line against the Pacers in 37 minutes, and now draws a dream matchup with the Bulls’ 27th ranked defense against SF. He is near minimum salary, making him an absolute steal if he earns big minutes once again tonight. He hit 6X salary last game, which is double the amount we are looking for. He comes with a slight risk, but the upside is immense at this price.
Jared Sullinger ($13,350) at Brooklyn – “Sully” has been an unpredictable player at times this season, but he has turned it on over his past 6 games, averaging 16/9, including 3 games with at least 41.75 FP. Tonight he draws a great matchup against a Nets team that ranks 20th in the NBA against PF. I’m banking on Sullinger keeping his hot streak going against Mason Plumlee and company.
John Henson ($7,400) at Philadelphia - Henson has come on strong since making his season debut, and outside of a foul-plagued performance against the Knicks, he has reached 20 FP in every contest. He has seen 23-25 minutes of play in each of his last 3 games (Knicks game aside), and has been productive in his role. The 76ers are in the bottom 10 in the NBA against SF, PF, and C. He should see little resistance down low. I expect him to continue his solid play and provide great value tonight.
Center:
Jusuf Nurkic ($8,300) vs Orlando - I’m hesitant to write up another bench player, but Nurkic’s status as a bench player may be coming to an end. He has dominated down low, with 135.75 FP in just 93 minutes over his last 4 games. Nikola Vucevic and the Magic rank dead last in the NBA against opposing centers, and I have no qualms with rostering Nurkic in my cash games tonight in a dream matchup.
Some other plays that I think have a great opportunity to return value for you this evening are: Brook Lopez ($12,700) vs Boston, Blake Griffin ($16,350) vs Los Angles Lakers, Tobias Harris ($12,850) at Denver, and John Wall ($16,650) vs New York.
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!