Fantasy Basketball Picks 1-2-15
These fantasy basketball picks are built to help you crush Friday’s HUGE slate!
Kevin Durant (72) made his triumphant return, and led my New Year’s Eve squad to 19th place in the Rose Ruckus with a 248.50 total. Brandon Knight (41.50), Cole Aldrich (24.50) and Tristan Thompson (30.25) held their own as well, while Blake Griffin (37.25) fell just short of expectations. Tim Hardaway Jr. (5.75) played just 20 ineffective minutes before suffering a concussion, and Marvin Williams (7.75) reverted back to the role of irrelevant bench player that he was a week ago.
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player (like Ray McCallum), and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. While McCallum fell well short that night, others reached the level of value we are looking to achieve. For instance, Kemba Walker’s price tag of $14,550 last night needed just over 43 FP to hit 3x value. Walker managed 42.75 FP, which was right about what he needed to reach that plateau. He was a better play than James Harden last night, despite the fact that Harden scored more points, because of his higher return on salary. Keep in mind that these plays are based not only on matchup alone, but on salary as well.
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Kyrie Irving ($15,350) at Charlotte– I’m kicking things off with the most obvious play of the day. Irving has a 33.8% usage rate with LeBron James off the court, and with The King expected to miss 2 weeks, it will be the Kyrie show in Cleveland once again. Kemba Walker and the Hornets (I keep wanting to call them “Bobcats”) rank 24th in the NBA against opposing PG, and without a rim protector, Irving should have a field day. He will be a popular play, but for good reason.
Brandon Knight ($12,950) vs Indiana– Knight is another player who has gotten a big boost from the absence of a key player, and although Jabari Parker isn’t a LeBron-esque loss for Milwaukee, Knight has stepped up. His 29.2% usage rate without Parker puts him squarely in play for me, especially considering this low price tag. None of the Pacers backcourt players are known as great defenders, as evidenced by their #23 ranking against opposing PG. Knight has 73.75 FP in 70 minutes over his last two games (also plus matchups) against the Cavs and Hornets. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite point guard tonight.
Dion Waiters ($8,100) at Charlotte – There is plenty of production to go around in Cleveland right now with LeBron on the shelf. Although Waiters has struggled over the past two games, he makes for a fine play tonight given his 30.6% usage rate without Bron on the court. He is prone to bad games, but his floor is right around 2X salary, given the fact that he should see at least 25 minutes tonight.
Giannis Antetokuonmpo ($11,050) vs Indiana - “The Alphabet” makes for a tremendous play most nights due to his ability to fill up the stat sheet in many ways. Case in point, over his last two games he has scored 30 real points, but totaled 74.25 FP in 65 minutes. The only concern here is minutes, but if he remains locked in how he has been over the past two, he should have no problem seeing 30 minutes tonight. He has 40+ FP upside in a matchup against the Pacers.
Forward:
Kevin Durant ($17,650) vs Washington - Some people love Christmas morning, but I love days like today where I can wake up and see reigning MVP Kevin Durant as the 6th-most expensive player on the board. I utilized him heavily two nights ago, and he exploded for 72 FP. Russell Westbrook was ejected late in the 1st half of that contest, but Durant was already well on his way to a huge performance. The Wizards are ranked 5th or higher against every position except SF, where they sit 28th in the NBA. I don’t need to tell you about Durant’s upside. I can’t fathom a scenario where Durant isn’t on every one of my rosters at this price.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($7,900) vs Cleveland - With Lance Stephenson still out, MKG is being forced into a bigger role in the Bobcats offense. Gerald Henderson sees more minutes, but MKG can contribute in more categories for almost the same price. He has come very close to a double-double in 2 of his last 3 games, and that potential bonus is an upside that Henderson doesn’t possess. I don’t expect a huge game, but MKG could certainly hit 3X salary tonight against whichever fill-in the Cavaliers start tonight.
Mason Plumlee ($10,750) at Orlando – Plumlee got in early foul trouble against the Bulls last time out, and managed just 20.50 FP in 17 minutes. Brook Lopez saw big minutes in a start, but don’t be fooled. Lopez’s extended action was a result of Kevin Garnett’s absence, and he was not taking over for Plumlee. I think many players will see the box score and overreact here, which I think is a mistake. Plumlee makes for a great play against a Magic team that ranks dead last against C this season. He could easily hit 3X salary in a dream matchup.
John Henson ($6,350) vs Indiana - We are slowly seeing Henson’s minutes increase, and he was up to 25 last game against the Cavaliers. He is averaging just over 1 FP per minute since his return (87 in 83 minutes) and makes for a great punt play tonight against the Pacers. His floor is low, but he isn’t dependent on scoring to contribute. With his minutes still being low, I wouldn’t be willing to pay a high price tag for him, but he is not much more than the minimum tonight, which makes him a great value.
Center:
Henry Sims ($9,100) at Phoenix - I was considering Cole Aldrich at this spot once again, but elected to go with Sims in a great matchup. The Suns have been picked apart by big men this season, as neither Alex Len or Miles Plumlee has put up much resistance down low. Sims has seen inconsistent minutes, but the 76ers need to exploit this matchup if they are going to keep this one close. I’m rolling with Sims as a low-owned, high-upside play tonight.
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!
Hey Justin,
I really like your clear thinking. I just joined a couple draft sites. Stop in for a beer at my brewery (Santa Barbara Brewing Company). Me and my buddies will have plenty of NBA to talk about with you.
Thanks,
Steve
Hey Steven, if I lived anywhere near there, I’d be down! I live in Ohio though, so it may be quite a trek to get out there. If I’m ever in town, I’ll stop by and we can talk hoops!
No late players? Always gotta have at least one late player, can be difference maker
Not sure it matters what time you get the points to be honest. Just feels that way but never matters what time or from what position they come from.
Dooger is right on this one. If you have the right plays, it doesn’t matter what time the game tips off. The point is trying to maximize salary potential.