Fantasy Football Picks to Click- Divisional Round
These fantasy football picks to click will make your NFL Divisional Playoff round into a profitable one!
Quarterbacks
Top Pick: Andrew Luck (IND), $14,550 @ (DEN)
Luck entered the postseason with three straight games throwing for less than 200 yards (one was the season finale where he played just one half), but bounced back to earlier season form throwing for 376 yards and a touchdown against a tough Bengals pass defense. Things don’t get any easier for Luck this week facing a Broncos defense that Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks second in pass coverage and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks fifth in pass defense. That said, Luck torched them in the season opener hucking it for 370 yards and a pair of touchdowns (and a pair of picks) while adding 19 yards rushing and a score on the ground. The Stanford product finished the year third in passing yards and leading the way in touchdown passes. Vegas Insider has the Colts as a seven point underdog currently, but with a betting total of 54 points, Luck should be a solid bet to post a hearty fantasy point scoring total.
Value Pick: Peyton Manning (DEN), $13,150 vs (IND)
Opposing Luck is Manning, and he, too, had a rough finish to the regular season. The former Colt had two sub-200 yard passing efforts in his last five regular season games, eclipsed 300 yards just one time in those contests, and passed for five touchdowns and six interceptions in that time frame. That said, his season totals were excellent and a week off may be just what the doctor ordered for the grizzled veteran. Manning ranked fourth in passing yards, second in touchdown passes, and sixth in PFF QB Rating in the regular season. He’ll take aim at a Colts defense that PFF ranks fifth in pass coverage and FO ranks 10th defending the pass. As the seventh most expensive out of eight quarterbacks, the bar is exceptionally low for Manning to provide a positive return on the small investment, and the upside is immense.
Running Backs
Top Pick: C.J. Anderson (DEN), $13,150 vs (IND)
While I like his teammate, The Sheriff, I love Anderson against the Colts. Some people are likely to fade Anderson due to the return of Ronnie Hillman the last week of the regular season. According to PFF the workload was split 36 snaps for Anderson to 35 snaps for Hillman in week 17, but in a meaningful game, I’d expect Anderson to widen the snaps gap given his superior play on the field this year. The second-year back first tallied double digit carries in week 10 against the Raiders, and he surpassed 90 yards from scrimmage in all but one of those eight games (a game in which he scored three rushing touchdowns). Even with his late start to getting feature back work, Anderson still finished 16th in rushing yards with 849, and he was an asset as a pass catcher reeling in 34 receptions for 325 yards receiving. Anderson should have little trouble running roughshod over a Colts defense that PFF ranks 18th and FO ranks 19th in run defense.
Value Pick: Shane Vereen (NE), $7,250 vs (BAL)
Vereen is a sizable gamble, but when you’re playing NFL DFS with a short slate of games, you need to take educated guesses somewhere on the roster, and Vereen makes a lot of sense as a solid contributor this week. PFF ranks the Ravens number one in run defense and FO grades them as the fifth best run defense. Facing such a stout run defense means it would behoove coach Bill Belichick to use his pass catching, change-of-pace back more often. Belichick is no dummy, and it should come as little surprise that three of Vereen’s four highest scoring DFS games this year came against top five run defenses as ranked by PFF (Jets, Lions and Broncos). The pass catching specialist in the backfield stable ranked fifth among running backs in receptions and receiving yards this year, and I’d expect him to get some extra usage this week.
Wide Receivers
Top Pick: Demaryius Thomas (DEN), $13,350 vs (IND)
Calling Thomas a beast might be selling him short. He was tied for the league lead in targets, second in receptions,receiving yards and YPRR, tied for seventh in touchdown grabs among receivers, and compared to his other peers that played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, he ranked tied for 14th with 6.0 YAC/Rec. Even if he sees stud cornerback Vontae Davis lined up opposite him with regularity this weekend, Thomas should still get a healthy number of targets and turn them into a very productive final line.
Value Pick: Paul Richardson (SEA), $5,000 vs (CAR)
Lost in an extremely deep and productive crop of rookie wide receivers is the late season emergence of Richardson with the Seahawks. The first year pro grabbed five passes for 52 yards in week 16 and had five receptions for 60 yards in week 17. He led the club in receptions and receiving yards the final week of the regular season, and was on the field for more snaps than any other wide out in that game as well. The Panthers defense got stingy down the stretch, but getting a receiver that gets as much work as Richardson does at such a cheap cost is an absolute steal.
Tight Ends
Top Pick: Rob Gronkowski (NE), $14,000 vs (BAL)
Gronkowski is the only tight end in the five figure price range, but that’s for good reason. He’s the best in the business and led the position in receiving yards and YPRR while tying for first in touchdown receptions, he ranked second in targets, and fourth in receptions. Gronk was a beast this season, and he gets to face a Ravens defense that FO ranked 20th stopping tight ends. Budget to have the star tight end on your DFS rosters.
Value Pick: Owen Daniels (BAL), $7,100 @ (NE)
Daniels delivered as my value pick at tight end in the first round of the playoffs, and he gets the nod again this week. He’s the eighth most expensive tight end and coming off a solid four grab for 70 yards showing against the division rival Steelers. He was second on the team in receptions and receiving yards, and with Darrell Revis blanketing one receiver, another stellar showing appears to be in the cards for Daniels against a Patriots defense that FO ranks 30th defending tight ends.
Bad idea to not include any players from the packers game