Today’s short slate of MLB fantasy expert picks hones in on one team’s high chance of success.
First off, I want to add on to the topic we discussed yesterday. Opportunity cost was our main focus, and Masahiro Tanaka was the primary conversation piece. The newly crowned Yankees ace was superb, striking out eight on the way to his first career complete game shutout in the Majors. No other pitcher on the slate came close to his mastery, and it was a case study in why opportunity cost is such a critical aspect when building daily fantasy baseball lineups.
As for tonight’s games, we’re once again staring down the barrel of abbreviated action. With only five games on tap for the evening contests, it’s vitally important we “hit” on our MLB fantasy expert picks, as it only takes a few unrostered heroics to spell the end of our chances. One game in particular, the Indians at the Blue Jays, is an excellent source of daily fantasy baseball value. We’ll target two options from Cleveland heavily with our MLB fantasy expert picks.
Five Guys MLB Fantasy Expert Picks
All salaries listed are for DraftDay player pricing.
Salvador Perez $8,250 - Perez is a noted lefty masher, and with a slate as thin as we have tonight it’s important to stay the course and take the chalk. Wei-Yin Chen is a soft-tossing left-hander whose best days are likely behind, making tonight a prime spot to deploy Salvador. His numbers against southpaws since 2011 are stellar; a .336 batting average, .401 wOBA, and a .233 ISO.
Matt Cain $15,900 - Cain looks somewhere between his former self and what we saw last season, but with most of his starts being on the road to start the year I’m willing to cut him some slack. He finds himself in the friendly pitching confines of San Francisco, and his groundball rate has risen to 44.3% this season, up from 37.7% last year. The Marlins sport a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and have been very poor away from Miami.
Carlos Santana $8,250 - After a painstakingly slow start to the year, Santana has turned things around nicely over the last month. The Indians are likely to be the highest-scoring team tonight, and that means you’ll need some exposure to their bats. Carlos is one of my favorite ways to accomplish that, and his strong numbers since 2011 against left-handed pitching (.286 batting average, .373 wOBA, .183 ISO) reinforce the decision. J.A. Happ is at the bottom of the barrel as far as Toronto’s starters are concerned, and the Rogers Centre inflates home runs significantly.
Chase Whitley $8,450 - This is a risky pick, but one that could pay off given the circumstances. The Mets strikeout 22.2% of the time against right-handed pitching, and young Whitley is touting a 10.94% K rate in Triple-A this season. Add to that a batting average of .221 against righties from the Mets and you have a carefully calculated value play.
Nick Swisher $8,600 - I don’t mind taking Swisher as my lone first basemen today, as the combination of matchup and expected team scoring total makes him an appealing option, much like Carlos Santana above. His numbers since 2011 against southpaws, a .268 batting average, .368 wOBA, and .200 ISO offer a ringing endorsement.
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