Often times a player’s actual fantasy value is quite different than the public perception.
This concept is age-old and second nature to seasoned fantasy sports veterans. It’s a topic we can always benefit from a quick dusting up on though, as we all regress to old habits from time to time.
The idea to visit this topic was borne from an interview I recently did with FanThrowdown user “Emac” in regards to his $1,000 finish in our weekly Friday Night Fight tournament. Emac explained how he arrived at his choice of starting pitchers, and why he chose Jedd Gyorko as a fantasy value play for his roster. You can read the full interview here for a more in-depth explanation, but suffice to say he made a margin call and was paid off big time for his belief in actual fantasy value over the public perception. He believed C.C. Sabathia’s reputation as one of baseball’s longstanding fantasy aces was causing owners to react slowly in light of his recent decline, and with the struggling hurler’s price tag taking a subsequent hit he (correctly) predicted the field would reflect a high ownership percentage. By applying this hypothesis, he was able to take a player (Gyorko) whose potential success as a lefty crusher would serve a dual purpose — vaulting his team ahead while damaging a large number of his opponent’s teams. Few things are more satisfying than correctly predicting fantasy value and cashing in as a result.
This is in essence a group think problem that happens with fantasy value on every level of competition, from season-long to daily. A player’s reputation will proceed his recent performance, and less savvy owners are left frustrated at their seemingly excellent fantasy value play performing poorly. In this line of work we constantly preach about finding fantasy value, but just as important as finding fantasy value is learning to differentiate between true fantasy value and a player who is fairly priced due to prolonged poor statistics.
The wise fantasy owner can take advantage of this mob mentality just like Emac did last Friday night. Always ask yourself, “Is this stud’s price dropping because he’s playing poorly, and if so what are the factors behind it?” By learning to correctly assess fantasy value you’ll be next in line for a huge payday!