Fantasy Football Thanksgiving Picks to Click
These fantasy football picks will be further reason to give thanks on Thanksgiving!
Quarterbacks
Top Pick: Tony Romo (DAL), $13,900 vs (PHI)
According to Vegas Insider, the Cowboys are a three point favorite in a game with a 54.5 point betting total, and the Cowboys easiest route to putting up points will be through the air. Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks the Eagles seventh defending the run and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them ninth stopping the run. The Eagles are closer to the middle of the pack against the pass ranking 13th in pass coverage at PFF and 13th defending the pass at FO. A balanced attack from the Cowboys is likely, but Romo should have an easier path to success airing it out than DeMarco Murray will on the ground. It should also be noted that while Murray is grabbing all the headlines with his gaudy rushing totals, Romo has been excellent himself. The Cowboys often criticized quarterback ranks 16th in passing yards, tied for sixth in passing touchdowns, and second in PFF QB Rating.
Value Pick: Mark Sanchez (PHI), $12,700 @ (DAL)
Sanchez has had some trouble with turnovers (two interceptions in three of four games played), but he’s made up for them by piling up yardage (over 300 yards in all three starts) and touchdowns (a pair of touchdown passes in three of four games played). As mentioned above, the Eagles are underdogs, albeit a small one, in a game with a huge betting total. I fully expect much the same from Sanchez with a turnover or two, but multiple scores and tons of yardage against a Cowboys defense that PFF ranks 19th in pass coverage and FO ranks 21st in pass defense.
Running Backs
Top Pick: Matt Forte (CHI), $16,200 @ (DET)
Two of the games top running backs this year are playing on Thanksgiving, and while I expect Murray to play just fine, I’ve already indicated that I think the Cowboys will find more success through the air. The same can be said for the Bears, but that’s actually a good thing for Forte. The former Tulane star is far and away the most accomplished receiving back in the game. His season low for receptions in a game this year is three, and he’s reached or exceeded five receptions in each of his other games played. He’s scoring nearly a touchdown worth of fantasy points on a weekly basis just in receptions. That alone gives him a nifty floor, and there is little reason to think he won’t fair well in the passing game facing a Lions defense that FO ranks 20th defending running backs in the passing game. Forte isn’t a total slouch on the ground either, and his 822 rushing yards played a huge role in him tallying 1,435 yards from scrimmage, the third most in the league. Toss in his eight touchdowns and 72 receptions, and you’ve got a true do-it-all back that is worth his steep price.
Value Pick: LeSean McCoy (PHI), $11,300 @ (DAL)
McCoy delivered against the league’s worst run defense in week 11, relieving some of the frustration felt by yearly leaguers that drafted him. A repeat performance is a loftier projection than I’m willing to throw out there, but his steady workload will prove fruitful against a Cowboys run defense ranked 16th by PFF and 22nd by FO. Circling back to workload, Shady has received at least 20 carries in all but three games this season. The addition of Darren Sproles to the backfield has taken a chunk out of his role as a pass catcher, but all-in-all, McCoy has done enough to total 970 yards from scrimmage (14th most in the league) while also reaching pay dirt in two of his last three games after scoring just one touchdown in his first eight games played.
Wide Receivers
Top Pick: Jordan Matthews (PHI), $10,250 @ (DAL)
No one has benefited more from the quarterback change in the City of Brotherly Love than Matthews. The rookie wide receiver has at least one score in three of his last four games, and he’s bested 100 yards receiving twice. He’s also secured five receptions or more in three of four games with Sanchez under center. In short, Matthews is flourishing. Jeremy Maclin remains the number one receiver for the Eagles, and that should actually benefit Matthews this week since FO ranks the Cowboys 31st defending number two wide receivers.
Value Pick: Stevie Johnson (SF), $5,150 vs (SEA)
Johnson is a huge gamble, but if you’re going to stuff the other high salary players I’ve touted onto your roster, you have to take some cheap chances somewhere. The biggest knock on the former Bill is his low snap count. He’s played 25 or fewer snaps, according to PFF, in each of his last four games. Even with the low snap count, he’s still the clear cut number three receiver for the 49ers ranking third in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and touchdown grabs. Call this a hunch, but it’s my belief that acquiring Johnson in the offseason was a move motivated by attacking the Seahawks secondary. The division rival’s defense has taken a step back this year, but remains very stout against the run. The best way to beat them is going after the Legion of Boom, and Johnson looks like the x-factor this week to me. FO ranks the Seahawks second defending number one wide receivers, 18th defending number two wide receivers, and just 25th defending “other” wide receivers. The 49ers would be foolish to not lineup in a few more three wide receiver sets and exploit that chink in the Seahawks’ defensive armor.
Tight Ends
Top Pick: Jason Witten (DAL), $9,250 vs (PHI)
Like a broken record I’ll repeat, the Cowboys best game plan offensively this week involves airing it out often against the Eagles. That plays into the hands of the number two receiver on the team, Witten. The talented tight end is second on the team in receptions, targets, and yards, and he has four touchdown grabs. He’s reeled in four or more receptions in eight of 11 contests this year, and he should be in store for another stellar effort against an Eagles defense ranked 16th defending tight ends.
Value Pick: Eric Ebron (DET), $5,250 vs (CHI)
Ebron missed some time due to injury, but since returning to the Lions a couple weeks ago, he’s led tight ends in snaps played each of those two games. The rookie tight end has failed to carve out a substantial role in the Lions passing game, but he has been targeted 11 times in the last two games, so perhaps his usage will be on the upswing down the stretch. If nothing else, he should be utilized more heavily this week since he’s facing a Bears defense that FO ranks 29th defending tight ends.