Fantasy Basketball Picks 1-5-14
These fantasy basketball picks highlight some great plays on tonight’s HUGE slate!
I’d like to kick things off by saying that I’m extremely proud of my ability to spell “Giannis Antetokounmpo” without having to look it up. That may be the pinnacle of sports writing accomplishments for me at this point in my career. With that being said, “The Alphabet” managed to have a great night (39.50) against the hapless New York Knicks. Donald Sloan (36.50) continued to be a must-play with George Hill and C.J. Watson out of action, and Andre Drummond has arrived as a player that you can count on after a 38.25 FP performance against DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings last night. The savings in salary ended up paying off, as DMC only outscored Drummond by 5.75 FP. Moving on to the disappointments, Brandon Knight (24.25) never got it going against the Knicks, while Mason Plumlee (20.25) was efficient, albeit unspectacular, in a great matchup with the Heat. J.R. Smith (29.25) continues to be the focal point of a terrible offense in New York, but at his current price point on DraftDay, I can’t in good conscience roster him heavily in my cash games, despite the fact that he came very close to value last night.
Tonight is a tremendous 11-game slate with a lot of great options, and I’m going to help you fit some studs into your lineup.
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player, and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. Keep in mind that a minimum-priced player on DraftDay is even more valuable than a minimum-salary player elsewhere, due to the large gap in pricing with a $100,000 cap.
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Trey Burke ($11,900) vs Indiana – The Utah Jazz have been ravaged with injuries recently, and Burke has been the primary benefactor of these unfortunate circumstances. Their loss is our gain. Burke has seen an increase in minutes, and has produced at a high level with the exception of a 2-19 shooting performance against Atlanta. The Pacers rank 18th in the NBA in FP allowed to PG, and Donald Sloan isn’t likely to provide much resistance for Burke. The Jazz have leaned heavily on him, as he has played 37, 39, and 39 minutes in his last three game while taking 56 shots. He makes for a safe PG play with upside.
Donald Sloan ($8,900) at Utah – With George Hill officially OUT again tonight and C.J. Watson’s status uncertain, Sloan fits in as the obvious value play once again. If Watson sits, put Sloan into your lineups and don’t look back. In his last two games as the starter, he has 67.75 FP in 69 minutes, and you can get him at under 9K. He is an easy choice tonight against Trey Burke and company.
Evan Turner ($9,300) vs Charlotte – This pick is contingent on Turner being named the starter at PG, but coming off of a 29/5/6 performance against the Bulls, it would appear that will be the case. Picking on Kemba Walker has been a +EV strategy all season long, and I’ll continue to implore that strategy this evening. Elfrid Payton put up 50 FP against Walker a few games back, and while “E.T.” isn’t likely to replicate those numbers, he could certainly post 30+ in a great matchup. Turner is SG and SF eligible, so he is easy to fit in if you choose to go that route.
Matthew Dellavadova ($5,600) at Philadelphia - Dellevadova isn’t a player that I’m dying to roster tonight, but he should be locked in to huge minutes with Kyrie Irving and LeBron James both out. I mentioned above how valuable minimum salary players are on DraftDay, and Delle fits the bill. He costs you a measly 5.6% of your salary, and only needs 16.8 FP to reach 3X value. He is an easy gap filler to help you roster some studs.
Forward:
Kevin Durant ($18,850) at Golden State - In his last game against the Warriors, Durant became the first player in NBA HISTORY to score 30 points in less than 20 minutes (he did it in 19 before rolling his ankle right before halftime). His price seems prohibitive, but this is a huge discount for his potential upside in this matchup. The reigning MVP has 70 FP upside, and is a FP/min monster with 122.25 in 71 minutes over his last two games. The Vegas total on this one is 217. Don’t overthink it. Get him into your lineups tonight.
Draymond Green ($14,400) vs Oklahoma City - This one is another no-brainer. Green is criminally underpriced right now, and I’ll be taking full advantage. He hasn’t shot the ball particularly well, but his contributions across the board make him a must-play at this price for me. He posted a triple-double against Toronto in his last game that was good for 60.75 FP, and that was his SECOND 60+ FP performance this season. To put it into perspective, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook each have 2 such games. Play Green at a discount tonight and watch him rack up FP in a variety of ways.
Trevor Booker ($7,250) vs Indiana – This one is digging deep, but with the myriad of injuries that the Jazz have suffered, I’m looking at Booker as a salary cap-reliever tonight. He has 58.5 FP in his last two games in just 43 minutes, and is coming off of an impressive 8/15/6 performance against Minnesota. A matchup with the Pacers frontcourt isn’t ideal, but at this price, Booker provides you with some upside.
Kevin Love ($15,900) at Philadelphia - Say what you will about Kevin Love in his new role, but he is still one of the best PF in the game. With Kyrie Irving and LeBron James both out tonight, Love will be in every single one of my lineups at this price. He once again becomes the focal part of an offense, and we all saw what he could do in this role with Minnesota. Love posted 52.25 last night in a game that Kyrie Irving played 25 minutes before leaving with an injury. I expect his numbers to be similar tonight. The 76ers are an awful defensive team, and Love should have his way down low with any of them. Dollar for dollar, he is right up there with Durant as the top overall option for me tonight.
Center:
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,650) at Minnesota - Nurkic has been a guy that I’ve rolled out in some GPPs over the past week, and he has reached the level of cash game-playable at this price for me. He has been a monster over the past 3 games, posting 102.75 FP in just 71 minutes on the court. It looks like he will be taking over for Timofey Mozgov sooner rather than later. Minnesota ranks 19th in the NBA against opposing C. Take advantage of a very cheap play down low that gives you significant upside.
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!