These fantasy football GPP plays will help you differentiate yourself from the field in Week 16!
Derek Anderson was a DFS darling last week, posting 16.48 FP at minimum salary, while the more popular Johnny Manziel finished with 2.50. Hopefully you avoided that land mine. Teddy Bridgewater was solid against a tough Lions team, posting 17.6 FP. Donte Moncreif was shut out completely, and Antonio Gates had a big day en route to a 17.4 FP performance against the Broncos. Kicking things off for Week 16, I’m looking for players who may not necessarily be near minimum salary, but could explode for huge scores.
Disclaimer: First off, these plays are meant to be considered as tournament-only options. Second, these are boom-or-bust plays, who could end up putting up a complete dud of a game, or being the guy who explodes for 30 fantasy points and carries you to a GPP victory. Third, use these plays with caution, because they have do have inherent risk. Along with their high ceiling and point potential, there is also a low floor and lack of consistency. Alright, enough disclaimers! These are the players I believe can be the difference between your lineups minimum cashing in a GPP or winning the whole damn thing.
Jimmy Clausen ($7,500) vs Detroit- If you’re wondering where I’m going with this one, that’s understandable. The entire purpose of this article is to highlight players that will be low owned that can have a major impact. Clausen fits that bill in a tough matchup against the Lions that Football Outsiders (FO) has ranked as the 3rd-best pass defense unit in the NFL. Marc Trestman is known as “The Quarterback Whisperer”, and while I don’t have much faith in a QB who hasn’t started an NFL game since 2010, I do still have some faith in Trestman being able to prepare him. At minimum salary, you aren’t risking much, and if he can hit 200 yards and find the end zone, he will more than pay off his salary. He has weapons surrounding him, and has every opportunity to have a decent game if he can stay upright.
Geno Smith ($8,300) vs New England- Yes, Geno Smith has been terrible for much of the season. However, you may be interested to know that his second-best performance of the season came against these same Patriots in Foxboro. Smith was 20/34 for 226 yards and a score and even added 37 yards on the ground. While he may not reach these numbers again, he is averaging 216 yards and a score along with 24.5 yards on the ground over his last two contests. This is the biggest game of the Jets’ season, and they have played the role of spoiler quite nicely in the past. Smith is the ultimate boom-or-bust play.
C.J. Spiller ($6,900) at Oakland - Spiller is a frustrating player to target in DFS games, and his situation becomes even cloudier this weekend in his return from a broken collarbone. The Raiders are a decent run defense, ranking 15th in the NFL according to FO. With that being said, the Bills have a lot riding on this game, and if Spiller is healthy, he is likely ready to assume some of the backfield duties. He is a home run threat at any time, and if he breaks one at this price, he pays off his tag instantly. He has inherent risk built in, but his upside is as high as any player in this price range.
Chris Polk ($4,000) at Washington - The Redskins are the #9 run defense in the NFL, per FO. With that being said, Polk has emerged as a weapon in the Eagles backfield. He carries the ball 11 times for 49 yards against the Cowboys on November 27th, then after not touching the ball for a week, he returned to have 2 carries last week….both at the goal line. Both of those carries resulted in touchdowns, and while I don’t anticipate a huge workload, LeSean McCoy really struggled against the Redskins last time (19/22). The Eagles may be looking to mix things up, and it was even reported that Polk saw some first-team reps this week. He is a deep GPP play, but that is what we are looking for here.
Eddie Royal ($7,350) at San Fransisco- Keenan Allen is done for the season, and now Philip Rivers is left without his top target. We saw Royal step up while Allen wasn’t 100% earlier in the season, and he is going to need to show up in a big way this weekend with Allen and Ryan Mathews on the shelf with injuries. This game has a low total, but the 49ers have nothing to lose, having been eliminated from playoff contention last week. The Chargers are still fighting for their lives, and I expect Rivers to air it out to his diminutive wideout.
Harry Douglas ($8,400) at New Orleans - This game has a 56 point total, which is the highest on the week. Regardless of the status of Julio Jones, I like Douglas quite a bit in a matchup with a Saints defense that FO ranks 23rd in the NFL. Julio may end up being little more than a decoy this weekend, and Douglas will be a benefactor, as the Saints will likely look to slow down Roddy White. If Jones sits, Douglas will be in the majority of my lineups.
Jordan Cameron ($6,100) at Carolina - Johnny Manziel was a trainwreck last week, and he killed the value of all Browns skill players. This week he gets a softer matchup against a Panthers defense that FO has ranked at 16th against the pass. Even worse, they rank 5th against tight ends this season. With that being said, Manziel will need to have a safety blanket, and Cameron fits that bill. He is a risky play, but the price is enticing for a player of his talent.
As always, you can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42. I’d love to discuss these plays or any you are considering for this week!