Fantasy Basketball Picks 11-8-14
These fantasy basketball picks focus on value plays and studs that will give your lineup the spark it needs!
Last night was a disappointment, between Rajon Rondo sitting out the entire fourth quarter, Greg Monroe coming back down to earth, and Garrett Temple’s shooting percentage finally regressing to the norm. I’m excited to be back at it today with a tremendous amount of value on the board. My “Studs and Duds” are determined by the amount of points returned dependent on salary, which is why you’ll see players with similar scores in both categories. Here is your recap of Wednesday’s plays:
Studs: Eric Bledsoe (44.50), LeBron James (50.00), Courtney Lee (27.75), Chris Copeland (26.25),
Duds: Rajon Rondo (25.00), Kevin Martin (29.75), , Garrett Temple (14.25), Serge Ibaka (25.25), Greg Monroe (20.50), Channing Frye (16.75)
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Stephen Curry ($19,550) at Houston – Stephen Curry has firmly entrenched himself in the discussion of best shooters in NBA history. Defensive specialist Patrick Beverley is out for at least another week. Any questions? Curry has had at least 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in each game this year. His usage rate of 32.2% is fifth highest in the NBA. His floor in this matchup is very, very high. Don’t be surprised to see Curry as the top player at any position tonight, as we all know he has 60+ FP upside. He is averaging 49.8 FP per game in just 34 minutes. He is the quintessential cash game and GPP play built into one.
James Harden ($19,750) vs Golden State – Speaking of usage monsters, Harden’s 32.3% rate is slightly higher than Curry’s, and has him sitting at fourth in the league. Coming off a blowout of the Spurs’ second string, Harden should be well rested for this track meet that Vegas has pegged as the highest on the night at 205. Harden has been tremendously efficient this league, leading the league in points scored despite attempting the 9th-most shots. A big reason for this is the fact that Harden has been prolific at reaching the free throw line, with 70 attempts already this season. With all the value tonight, you can easily fit Curry and Harden in your lineup with confidence.
Mo Williams ($6,150) at Miami–Value plays abound tonight after multiple injuries hampered our Friday progress. Ricky Rubio left last night’s game with an ankle injury, and while x-rays were negative, the Wolves will likely err on the side of caution and sit him out regardless. Mo Williams will step right into big minutes until Rubio’s return, and is an excellent value tonight. He should see 30+ minutes and easily return 4X value, if not more.
Phil Pressey ($5,000) at Chicago – “Flip” Pressey is an instant play for me this evening, and will likely be a very popular play around the industry. Rajon Rondo left last night’s game and will not travel with the team to Chicago, as he is having a screw removed from his ankle. Pressey filled in admirably at times last season in Rondo’s absence. The matchup isn’t ideal, but you’re getting a starting PG at minimum salary. Pressey will likely put up around 25 FP, and is a lock for at least 4X value.
Forward:
Jimmy Butler ($12,650) vs Boston– If you’re playing cash games, you’re playing Butler at this price tag. If you’re playing GPPs, you want to fade him due to a likely high ownership %, but he has been so damn consistent, he is a tough fade. He is averaging 39 minutes per game, third only to Kyrie Irving and LeBron James, and is posting 37.9 FP per game as well. He is good for 30+ FP each time he touches the floor due to his versatility. He is 17th in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating (PER), yet he is available at a mid-range price. Don’t overthink this one. Butler is the most important player on this team, and is a guarantee to see 35+ minutes.
Tim Duncan ($15,450) vs New Orleans - Father Time can’t possibly run fast enough to catch up with Duncan, especially considering the way that Gregg Popovich manages his minutes like a wizard. In his last game against Atlanta, he posted a ridiculous 17 point, 13 rebound, 4 assist, 3 steal, 6 block line that was good for 56.25 points. A matchup against Anthony Davis on the block may intimidate some players, but not Timmy. He is tremendously effective down low, even at the ripe old age of 38, and Popovich doesn’t rest his players for no reason. Look for Duncan to be aggressive tonight as the Spurs look to bounce back from a disappointing 2-2 start.
Courtney Lee ($9,250) at Milwaukee– Lee has been one of the better value plays over the past few days, and I’m still on board. He is averaging right around 17/3/3 if you take out the game against Indiana that he left with a concussion after 16 minutes. He is currently leading the NBA in Effective Field Goal % (.737) and True Shooting Percentage (.766). You never expect 40+ from Lee, but he is a solid bet for around 3X value each night. He is a smart player who doesn’t turn the ball over (1 TO in last 3 games) or take bad shots. He is the perfect cash game play tonight.
Shawne Williams ($7,150) vs Minnesota – Williams should see all the minutes he can handle with injuries down low to Chris Anderson, Justin Hamilton, and Udonis Haslem. Haslem is Questionable, while the others are out. He isn’t afraid to shoot the 3, and on a site that rewards triples, he is a terrific value at $7,150. He should see at least 30 minutes tonight, which will give him ample time to pay off his small price tag. He has topped 24 FP in every game since the opener, and that would be more than enough tonight.
Center:
Chris Bosh ($17,000) vs Minnesota – I already mentioned the injuries to Miami’s frontcourt, and Bosh will be the biggest benefactor. He is already 15th in the NBA with a 28.7% usage rate, and if he sees close to 40 minutes tonight, he could have a huge game against the interior “defense” of Thaddeus Young and Nikola Pekovic on the second night of a back-to-back. Even against Gorgui Dieng (see below), Bosh should be able to stretch the floor and knock down open jumpers. Look for Bosh to dominate this matchup and fight for the highest FP output among big men.
Gorgui Dieng ($8,100) at Miami– Speaking of Minnesota’s inerior, Dieng has quietly been the best post frontcourt player for the Timberwolves. In 25 minutes last night, he posted 11 points, 10 boards, 2 steals and 2 blocks. He is a prolific shot-blocker and above average rebounder. I anticipate that Minnesota will boost his minutes on the back-to-back in order to try and contain Bosh. If Dieng sees 25+ minutes tonight, he will easily reach value. GPP-only for me until his minutes are solidified, but from what I’ve seen, there may be a changing of the guard down low in Minnesota sooner rather than later.
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