These fantasy basketball picks will help you crush the competition tonight!
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player, and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. Keep in mind that a minimum-priced player on DraftDay is even more valuable than a minimum-salary player elsewhere, due to the large gap in pricing with a $100,000 cap. Another key to remember is that in DFS, late injury news can be HUGE when deciding your final rosters. Just because someone was a great play in the morning doesn’t necessarily mean that better options won’t arise throughout the day. Monitor Twitter closely before locking in your lineups.
Today’s Top Plays
Stephen Curry ($18,550) vs Phoenix – The best shooter in the game comes in at a tremendous discount tonight in a game with an astronomical 225 point Vegas total. Curry will be matched up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe throughout the night, and neither is a great defender. Curry can score at will, and Vegas has the Warriors pegged as a 9-point favorite, which puts their team total right around 117 points. I’m targeting Curry in all formats.
Reggie Jackson ($9,900) at Memphis – As you would anticipate, this play is contingent on the status of Kevin Durant, who is currently “Questionable” for tonight’s game. The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but it seems that Scott Brooks has realized Jackson’s value in the offense while Durant sits. Over the last two games, Jackson has racked up 60 FP in 54 minutes, and will likely draw Beno Udrih or Nick Calathes on defense with the second unit.
Brian Roberts ($6,500) at Denevr – You may have noticed that I’m saving salary at guard tonight, and Roberts opens up a lot of salary for some big men down low. His matchup against Ty Lawson isn’t ideal, but he is playing huge minutes (70 in his last two) with Kemba Walker sidelined. Don’t expect huge things, but Roberts has been effective, with 25+ FP in each of his last two games, which is more than enough to pay off his minuscule salary.
Jodie Meeks ($7,450) vs Houston - Meeks has been a spark plug off the bench for the Pistons since Brandon Jennings was lost for the season with an achilles injury. His production has been inconsistent, but he is coming off of a 26 FP outing against Philly, and the Rockets struggle against SG. I anticipate Houston will focus on slowing down the big Detroit frontcourt, which could open up some shots for Meeks on the wing.
DeMar DeRozan ($11,600) at Washington - DDR played 41 minutes last night and posted a huge 26/9/4 line, falling just short of the double-double bonus. His shot is falling, and he is getting involved in the offense in a myriad of ways. The best part about him is that he has been out-producing Kyle Lowry, and comes in at a discount of over $4,000. I’m rolling with DDR once again tonight, despite the tough matchup against the Wizards.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($17,750) at Milwaukee - From likely out for extended time to dominance, LMA is on fire right now. In his last two games, he has 38/11/2 and 37/11/2, with both games being good for 61+ FP. His injury isn’t slowing him down at all, and now he gets the pleasure of matching up with John Henson and company in Milwaukee. Damian Lillard will have the tough assignment against defensive stalwart Brandon Knight, and I expect Aldridge to dominate a weak frontcourt once again.
Josh Smith ($10,800) at Detroit - If you’re a believer in narratives, Smith is your man. Since his release from Detroit, the Pistons have morphed into a contender, while his new team has struggled. He has finally begun to produce for Houston with Dwight Howard sidelined, scoring in double digits in 4 straight games, including back to back 38 FP performances. It remains to be seen how much bad blood there is between “Smoove” and his old team, but I’m not going to miss out on this one.
Kevin Love ($15,200) at Minnesota - Speaking of narratives, Love’s old team released a video hyping up tonight’s game as “The Return”. Coincidentally, the video highlighted the return of Mike Miller, who hasn’t played in Minnesota since 2009. I’m not sure how much Love will read into this one, but coming off of a solid 23/10/3 game last night, he should be plenty motivated against his former team, and I’ll be sure to have some shares.
Timofey Mozgov ($10,050) at Minnesota - “Mozzy” should be plenty well rested for tonight’s clash against the worst defensive (efficiency) team in the NBA. He played just 21 minutes last night, and has produced 21+ FP in 6 of his last 7 games. Due to the fact that Minnesota starts a huge lineup now with Thaddeus Young, Nikola Pekovic, and Gorgui Dieng, Cleveland will have no choice but to go big, which could mean big minutes for the newly-acquired big man.
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!