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Blog Post

Denny’s Deals - Week 3 Fantasy Football Defenses

17 Sep 2022
2 Comments
Denny Carter
Fantasy Football

It makes sense to pay up for Week 3 fantasy football defenses.

Daily fantasy research over the past year has shown that skimping on defenses might not be the way to go, especially in head-to-head and 50/50 games.

We saw the benefits of allocating big bucks to defenses in Week 2, when the Cardinals, Texans and Patriots put up big points in decidedly favorable matchups. I think this is an important lesson: make room for a pricey defense even if it means we can’t have that receiver or running back who costs just a couple hundred bucks more.

Below are the Week 3 fantasy football defenses I think best fit as options for head-to-head matchups and 50/50s, and the Week 3 fantasy football defenses with more variance ideal for tournament play. My analysis is largely based on Streaming Scores – numbers assigned to each and every defense indicating how good or bad their matchup is that week.

A team’s Streaming Score doesn’t incorporate the how stifling or generous a certain defense has been. It’s entirely matchup based.

A reminder: more than 60 percent of weekly top-12 fantasy defenses in 2013 had one thing in common — they were favored by Vegas.

Week Two Fantasy Football Defenses for Cash Games

New England Patriots ($6,700) vs. Oakland Raiders

There’s really no reason to move away from Oakland’s offense as a premier defensive target. In fact, the Patriots – the fourth priciest defense — may very well be a major bargain in Week 3.

I’m happy to pay that $6,700 against an abysmal Raiders’ offense that is allowing 11.4 fantasy points to opposing defenses, according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted points allowed tool. New England’s Streaming Score confirms it: They pull down a 5.5 score this week, the second highest among all teams.

Carolina Panthers ($6,550) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

While I don’t think either of these defenses have sky-high fantasy ceilings this week, we’d be foolish not to notice the obvious: the Steelers’ aerial offense has been nonexistent and the Carolina secondary is elite.

Ben Roethlisberger’s average depth of throw, according to Pro Football Focus, is 7.1 through two weeks – lower than all but three quarterbacks. The Panthers have suffocated passing attacks in the season’s first two weeks. I see Carolina as an ultra safe play in Week 3. The have a Streaming Score of 3.5.

Week Two Fantasy Football Defenses for Tournaments

Philadelphia Eagles ($5,650) vs. Washington

The Eagles’ defense has a surprisingly high Streaming Score of 3.5 in a game that Vegas likes as a high-scoring affair.

If you roll with Philly as a cheap defensive option against Washington, you’re banking on Kirk Cousins – who is serviceably accurate on his best days – to chuck it quite a bit against a secondary that isn’t terrible. The Eagles are a prototypical tournament defense in Week 3.

New Orleans Saints ($4,750) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Saints at home against a team in total and complete disarray headed by Matt Cassel? Yes, please.

The Saints, with a hefty 4.5 Streaming Score, could be the deal of the week against a Vikings offense that gave up 27 fantasy points to New England a week ago. The best case scenario – and a likely one – is that the Saints jump out to a lead, forcing the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings to air it out against a New Orleans pass rush that should put serious pressure on Cassel.

We saw last week what happens when Cassel is pressured. Deploy the 18th priciest defense with confidence.

About the Author
C.D. Carter, author of the "How To Think Like A Fantasy Football Winner" series, writes for XN Sports and 4for4.com, has been featured in The New York Times, and co-hosts the "Living The Stream" podcast.

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2 Comments

  1. Pingback: Denny’s Deals – Week 3 Fantasy Football Defenses - The DraftDay Blog

  2. Pingback: MGT Sports Denny’s Deals – Week 3 Fantasy Football Defenses - MGT Sports

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