Fantasy Football Picks to Click- Week 11
If you want to win big this weekend, these Fantasy Football Picks are exactly what you need!
Quarterbacks
Top Pick: Tom Brady (NE), $15,550 @ (IND)
There are lots of big betting point totals and sizable spreads to pick from, but Brady looks to possess the greatest marriage of upside and cost. He’s considerably cheaper than his Sunday Night Football counterpart Andrew Luck, and also much cheaper than Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. All look like strong plays, but the savings on Brady are hard to ignore. The three time Super Bowl champion ranks seventh in Pro Football Focus (PFF) QB Rating, fifth in touchdown passes (22), ninth in yardage (2,391), and he’s thrown only three interceptions. It should come as little surprise that his play has improved as his stud tight end has rounded into form, and playing in the game with the highest betting total according to Vegas Insider (57.5 currently) makes him a great option.
Value Pick: Mark Sanchez (PHI), $11,500 @ (GB)
Sanchez looked sharp in his first start with the Eagles, following up a solid relief appearance the previous week. He has some nifty weapons to work with in Chip Kelly’s offense, and even with the Eagles currently a six point underdog, there are plenty of points projected with the second highest betting total of the week (55). The former Jet is averaging a staggering 8.83 yards/attempt (better than Rodgers’ 8.69 yards/attempt for comparison), and with 55.7% of his yards coming through the air according to PFF, it’s not a case of him dumping the ball off and simply relying on his receivers to do all the work. It’s important to note that the Panthers pass defense he torched last week is terrible, and we’re talking about less than two full games worth of work. Regardless, with a high scoring affair in the offing, Sanchez is grossly underpriced and should easily provide a great return on investment.
Tourney Pick: Robert Griffin III (WAS), $8,600 vs (TB)
RGIII costs less than teammates Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy. El-oh-el. With just a tick over two full games played this year, we don’t know much about how Griffin III will fair in the new look Washington offense eschewed in with the hiring of Jay Gruden as head coach. What we do know is that he’s healthy, and coming off a passable effort against a solid Vikings defense in which he completed 18-of-28 passes for 251 yards with one interception and one touchdown and 24 rushing yards. A repeat performance would be plenty to justify his mini dent in your roster’s salary cap, and the ceiling is significantly higher. RGIII is still a threat to break off a big run with his legs, but it’s his arm that I’m enamored with this week, namely because he’s facing a terrible Buccaneers defense. PFF ranks the Bucs 30th in pass coverage and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 31st defending the pass. As a seven point betting favorite in a game with a 45.5 point total, the Washington signal caller has a chance to be a huge difference maker in GPPs this weekend.
Running Backs
Top Pick: Mark Ingram (NO), $11,800 vs (CIN)
Ingram is shedding the bust label in a big way this year, and he’s been especially awesome in his last three games. In that time frame the hard charging back has been a workhorse, something not often seen in a Sean Payton coached Saints offense, carrying the ball no fewer than 24 yards and reaching or exceeding 100 yards rushing in each contest. He’s also been a regular in the end zone, reaching pay dirt three times. The Saints lost an overtime heart breaker last week against the 49ers, but the Saints have tallied two wins in those three contests and would be wise to maintain the balance Ingram’s running ability awards them. He’s been a beast after contact, ranking tied for 14th among running backs that have played 25% of their team’s snaps with 2.5 YCo/Att. The University of Alabama product should have little trouble rolling over a Bengals defense that PFF ranks 30th and FO ranks last defending the run. I’m expecting a fourth straight 100-plus yard rushing effort with at least one touchdown.
Value Pick: C.J. Anderson (DEN), $7,350 @ (STL)
Ronnie Hillman will almost certainly miss this contest, and Montee Ball has done next to nothing in his career to warrant being given the starting running back job back now that he’s healthy. Anderson had one highlight reel touchdown grab last week against the Raiders, and impressed running the ball as well with 90 yards on 13 carries. The monstrous showing was unlike anything we’ve ever seen from the second year back, but in fairness, he’d never really been given much of an opportunity to shine before that. Most importantly, beyond his cheap price tag, is that he’s playing in a Peyton Manning led offense that will score a ton of points as 9.5 point betting favorites in a game with a 51 point total. Anderson isn’t a bulletproof selection for DFS gamers, but he’s a smart dice roll, especially in GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Top Pick: Demaryius Thomas (DEN), $14,950 @ (STL)
Anderson offers a bargain option in what figures to be a showcase game for the Broncos offense, but Thomas is the big ticket item from that team that will be featured prominently on my DFS rosters. The athletically gifted and big wide out is one of just two receivers with more than 1,000 yards receiving this year. He’s second at the position in targets with 99 according to PFF, and his half-dozen touchdown grabs rank tied for seventh. While it’s great having Manning throw you the football, Thomas can do plenty of work after the catch on his own ranking sixth among wide receivers that have played 25% of their team’s snaps with 7.1 YAC/Rec. He’s no stranger to picking up yards after the catch either, having ranked tied for third last season in YAC/Rec. Manning can shred any defense, much like Thomas can abuse any cornerback, but things should be easy for the two of them this week against a Rams defense that PFF ranks 25th in pass coverage and FO ranks 30th defending the pass.
Value Pick: Keenan Allen (SD), $8,600 vs (OAK)
Allen has failed to deliver the encore to his dynamic rookie season that many expected, but that doesn’t mean that Philip Rivers isn’t looking his way often. Allen’s 72 targets this year are tied for the 19th most at the wide receiver position, and I believe he’ll thrive coming out of the Chargers bye week. The Raiders rank 25th in pass coverage and 27th in pass defense according to PFF and FO respectively. Adding to my excitement level for rostering Allen is the fact that FO ranks the Raiders 31st defending number one wide receivers. The Chargers are the biggest favorites this week laying 10 points to the Raiders, and Allen will have a hand in the rout.
Tight Ends
Top Pick: Rob Gronkowski (NE), $14,150 @ (IND)
Pairing the best tight end in the game, Gronkowski, with Brady is a wise move. Gronk’s numbers all rank highly at the tight end position with ranks of third in targets (71), tied for third in receptions (49), first in receiving yards (663), third in touchdowns (eight), and leads the way in yards per route run (YPRR) among tight ends that have received 25% or more of their team’s targets. In other words, he’s a stud, and he’s facing a Colts defense that FO ranks 29th defending tight ends. If you’re fading Gronkowski this week, you’re doing yourself a disservice and putting yourself behind the eight ball.
Value Pick: Vernon Davis (SF), $6,050 @ (NYG)
There is no way to slice up Davis’ 2014 campaign and spin it positively, he’s been a non-factor in the passing game and his production has been putrid. That said, he’s still an elite athlete that is a matchup nightmare when the 49ers are inclined to utilize him in their passing attack. He’s cheap, and that means the bar is very low for him to deliver a fantasy scoring output worthy of the minimal salary cap hit to DFS squads. Even in a season in which he’s yet to eclipse 50 yards receiving in a single game, the upside is there for an outburst, and a matchup with a Giants team ranked last defending tight ends leads me to believe he’ll set season highs in catches and receiving yards. Say what you will about Jim Harbaugh, but he’s not a complete dolt, and he’s most certainly cognizant of the Giants shortcomings defending tight ends. I’d be shocked if Davis sees less than five targets this week.
Good article but there is now way Mark Sanchez does anything vs my Packers, there defense is playing a lot better and he is still Mark Sanchez, bad bad pick