Fantasy Basketball Picks 1-13-14
These fantasy basketball picks will guide you on the path to winnings!
As anticipated, Anthony Davis (53.75) had a huge game against the Celtics last night, but still managed to fall just short of 3X value. Pau Gasol (51) was a beast down low once again, and Nikola Vucevic (51.25) dominated a weak Bulls interior to the tune of 33/14/4 on an impressive 16/24 from the field. Jrue Holiday posted 14.75 FP in 16 minutes before leaving with an injury, and Jimmy Butler (23) became an overpriced play with Derrick Rose in the lineup. Donatas Motiejunas (33.75) continued his impressive consistency, and Marcus Smart (21.75) did just enough to pay off his salary. Tonight we are back to a solid 7-game slate of action, so let’s get started.
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player, and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. Keep in mind that a minimum-priced player on DraftDay is even more valuable than a minimum-salary player elsewhere, due to the large gap in pricing with a $100,000 cap.
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Trey Burke ($11,900) vs Golden State – While I don’t mind paying up for John Wall tonight, I’m looking to Burke as a salary saver tonight. He has a 22.6% usage rate with Alec Burks sidelined, and this game clocks in as the 3rd-highest total on the night at 203. A matchup with Stephen Curry isn’t ideal, but the Warriors are allowing the 9th-most FP per game to opposing PG. Vegas thinks this one can stay fairly close, as the Warriors are only listed as a -8 favorite. Burke hasn’t shot the ball particularly well this season, but his minutes are locked in around 35 per game right now. He has at least 37 FP in 3 of his last 6 games, and if this one stays close, he could come close to that number again.
Darren Collison ($13,000) vs Dallas –Speaking of high totals, Vegas has this one pegged at 211, so this game should be a high priority for DFSers tonight. Collison draws a matchup with the defensively inept Rajon Rondo tonight in what should be a fast paced game. The Mavericks are allowing the second-most FP per game to opposing PG, and with Ramon Sessions out, Collison soaks up a ton of minutes. With at least 28.5 FP in each of his last 5 games, Collison is a safe bet for your cash games.
Kyle Korver ($10,850) at Philadelphia – Korver is quietly having a tremendous season for the East-leading Hawks, shooting a tremendous 50.3% from the field and averaging 3 3-pointers per game. A site like DraftDay that awards bonuses for triples is the perfect place to target one of the deadliest shooters in the game. The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in FP allowed to both SG and SF. I love Korver tonight, as he should easily exploit the Sixers’ biggest weakness.
Manu Ginobili ($10,000) at Washington - When Manu exited the game against Phoenix with a back injury, his prognosis didn’t look good. He has improved dramatically over the past few days, and is listed as “Probable” for tonight’s game. Marco Belinelli may sit out, and with Gregg Popovich taking it easy on Tony Parker, Manu could be in line for an expanded role. The matchup isn’t ideal, and these Spurs circumstances are never predictable, so he makes for a great GPP play in my book.
Forward:
David West ($12,200) vs Minnesota - The Timberwolves are a mess right now, having lost 15 straight games, and have the NBA’s second worst record at 5-31. West is a cash game staple for me, regardless of the matchup, but tonight he draws a plus matchup against a depleted Minnesota frontcourt. Gorgui Dieng may be the next player to miss time, so the T-Wolves interior is even more of a trainwreck. West put up a 28/9/2 line against the 76ers last time out, and I love his chances to reach value in this one.
Anthony Bennett ($6,550) at Indiana - Speaking of the Timberwolves frontcourt, if Gorgui Dieng ends up sitting out, Bennett is in play for me at this price point. He has 68 FP in 68 minutes of court time over his last three games, and could see an expanded role if Dieng can’t go tonight. He isn’t going to blow you away, but he should be a fine bet to hit value.
Paul Millsap ($13,650) at Philadelphia – Millsap has seen lower production over the last few games while the Hawks have shown tremendous balance. This is great news for anyone looking to roster him against a 76ers team that allows the 5th-most points per game to opposing PF. As I alluded to earlier, David West shredded this frontcourt to the tune of 47.25 FP last time out, and Millsap should have to trouble down low. This biggest concern here is the potential blowout, as the Hawks are listed as 12.5 point favorites in this one.
DeMarcus Cousins ($20,350) vs Dallas - DMC is on a tear right now, with two straight games over 60 FP. Tonight he draws a less than ideal matchup against Tyson Chandler and the Mavericks, but that doesn’t scare me off of him. He has 81 points, 41 rebounds, 13 assists, 8 steals and 10 blocks in those two contests. If you can afford him tonight, he is the top option in a game with the night’s highest total at 213.5. The Kings will need a big game out of him if they are going to compete. DraftDay’s unique multi-positional eligibility allows you to roster DMC at PF so that you can play the most popular play at C tonight.
Center:
Hassan Whiteside ($9,850) at Los Angeles Lakers - You all knew what was coming here. Whiteside exploded off the bench in his last game with a 23/16 line in just 29 minutes, becoming the first Heat player since Alonzo Mourning to have 20/10 off the bench. He will be a very popular play this evening, and I wouldn’t recommend fading him in cash games in a great matchup against the Lakers. Even if he puts up a dud, he likely won’t hurt you much in cash games due to his high ownership numbers.
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!