Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks to Click 6-4-2023
Value is a relative thing, and my Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks at pitcher reflect that.
Adam Wainwright is priced $3,000 more than the next closest pitcher, a gap that’s wider than the price difference between the second most expensive pitcher and the eighth most expensive one. With that in mind, there is a tight cluster of arms with similar costs, and I’m picking two near the top of the heap. In order to offset the cost of pitching with my Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks, I’ve sprinkled in a minimum salary second baseman, and three outfielders who cost less than $7,500.
The information I bestow upon you is perfect for crushing the competition today. Join the $3.30 Wiz Walkoff, it’s one of my favorite contests! You can also pile up some cash in the other sweet games at DraftDay like the $1 Bunt Single, or one of the double-up games with entry fees that span from micro-stakes to high roller.
All salaries listed use DraftDay pricing.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Pitchers
My Pick: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals, $17,800
The last time I spat superlatives about Strasburg in this column, he came through, delivering 48 points. He twirled six brilliant innings allowing just six hits, one walk, and zero earned runs while striking out nine and earning a win. The Nationals were huge favorites to win that day, and they delivered. They are once again big betting favorites to win today as well. The 10 points that starters get by earning a win is huge, and it will only add to Strasburg’s bulging point total as a result of dominating the Phillies tonight. The San Diego State product ranks fourth among qualified starters in strikeout percentage, and he’s facing a Phillies lineup that lacks punch against right-handed pitchers. I expect Strasburg to eclipse 40 points in DraftDay games for his second straight start.
Value Pick: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians, $16,500
If you clicked the link above showing strikeout percentage rank, you probably noticed right behind Strasburg is Kluber. The Indians hurler has been a revelation this year after a stellar 2013 season. FanGraphs writer August Fagerstrom recently took an in-depth look at Kluber’s emergence to fantasy ace status, and there are some sweet GIFs that showcase his filthy swing-and-miss stuff. His top-shelf junk has been on full display his last two starts, and Kluber has ridden it to consecutive 50-plus point DraftDay efforts. Suggesting he’ll do the same today against a Red Sox lineup that isn’t super prone to striking out against right-handed pitchers is too ambitious for my taste, but I like his chances at earning a win since the Indians are favored. He’ll tally his fair share of strikeouts along the way.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Catchers
My Pick: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants, $10,400
Since becoming a full-time regular in 2010, Posey has slugged his way to the third highest wRC+, 170 (100 is league average) against southpaws among qualified batters. He owns a triple slash line of .338 /.403/.587 in 573 plate appearances in that time frame. This is all pertinent information because he’s facing struggling lefty Tony Cingrani of the Reds. Cingrani’s predictable diet of fastballs (Brooks Baseball credits him with throwing over 70 percent fastballs) to right-handed batters plays right into the hands of Posey. He has increased his changeup usage this year in an attempt to neutralize right-handed batters. It’s a below average pitch though, and one that the Giants’ backstop should have little problem punishing if it’s mixed in against him. When you factor in that today’s game is played at homer friendly Great American Ballpark, and that Cingrani has a flyball batted ball profile (43.6 percent flyball rate as a major leaguer according to FanGraphs), Posey becomes worth budgeting for.
Value Pick: Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics, $7,500
I flip one Athletics catcher for another as my value pick today. With a southpaw, Vidal Nuno, on the bump for the Yankees, the Athletics will swap Norris into the lineup for John Jaso. The right-handed hitting catcher has 336 big league plate appearances against southpaws, and has slugged over .500 with a 147 wRC+. He’s willing to work walks, and he even adds a dash of stolen base skills to the mix. Nuno doesn’t miss many bats (15.5 percent strikeout rate in 11 starts in the majors), and the majority of the balls put in play are in the air (44.4 percent flyball rate). That’s not a combination that plays well at the homer haven known as Yankee Stadium.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – First Basemen
My Pick: Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles, $9,950
Davis was one of the darlings of the baseball world last season, but it’s been a slow go this year. He’ll almost certainly fall short of the 53 homers he hit in 2013, but an oblique strain that sent him to the disabled list from April 26 to May 11 might help partially explain things. He’s been back for almost a month now, and at some point his top-shelf power is going to result in a tater binge. If you need further reasoning outside his 2012 and 2013 work, then I’ll direct you to his home run and flyball average distance found at Baseball Heatmaps. His average distance of 303.88 feet ranks 14th, and it’s less than five feet shorter than his average distance from last year. Not all is negative in the early going, though. Davis has increased his selectivity, offering at fewer pitches out of the strike zone for the third straight year, and he’s working walks at a career high rate of 13.1 percent. I’ll take my chances with Chrush when he’s priced for under five figures and facing a fairly inexperienced and unexciting right-handed pitcher like Nick Martinez.
Value Pick: Jon Singleton, Houston Astros, $6,450
Singleton isn’t in the same class as a player I’ve recently touted, Oscar Taveras, but he is an offensively-minded top prospect (he is a first baseman after all, he’s not earning the accolades due to his fielding exploits). His above average raw power has helped him launch 14 homers in 239 Triple-A plate appearances, and his discerning eye helped him earn walks in 17.6 percent of them. The left-handed hitting first baseman has a huge minor league split difference, as you can see at his Minor League Central page. Facing right-handed starter Garrett Richards will help him cash in on that tonight.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Second Basemen
My Pick: Daniel Murphy, New York Mets, $8,750
If you liked the 2013 version of Murphy, you’ll love the more patient 2014 Murphy 2.0. Seriously, his modest power and super efficient base stealing won the hearts of many when he hit 13 homers and stole 23 bases last year while hitting .286. He’s at it again this year with a huge bump in walk rate. Murphy has gone from walking in 4.6 percent of his plate appearances in 2013 to walking in 8.7 percent this year, all while shaving more than 2.5 percent off of his strikeout rate. Plate discipline numbers stabilize super quickly, so these skills gains are very real. His newfound willingness to take walks could pay dividends against erratic right-handed starter Edwin Jackson. E-Jax has walked 9.9 percent of the left-handed batters he has faced this year, and when he’s not walking them, they’re still giving him trouble hitting .275/.351/.430 with a .343 wOBA overall (3,324 left-handed batters faced). Getting on base will only be half of the fun for Murphy. With Welington Castillo on the disabled list, John Baker got the start for the Cubs behind the dish on Tuesday, and he figures to do the same tonight. Baker is inept at controlling the running game, and has allowed 209 of 257 would be base stealers to successfully swipe bags in 271 games played entering play yesterday. If, or more likely when, Murphy reaches base, expect the efficient base stealer to get the green light and make the most of it.
Value Pick: Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers, $5,000
As I teased on Twitter recently, a minimum salary Odor would find his way into my Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks at some point, and here we are. He’s hitting at the bottom of the Rangers order, which isn’t ideal for run production, but the left-handed hitting second baseman is facing a right-handed pitcher, Bud Norris, with a gnarly platoon split. The O’s starter has a fastball/slider heavy pitch mix, and unsurprisingly that has resulted in the 1,785 left-handed batters he has faced hitting .267/.356/.451 with a .353 wOBA against him. Odor is still making the transition from sweet swinging prospect to offensive minded second baseman at the major league level, with six extra base hits in 65 plate appearances and a palatable 95 wRC+ (putting him just a little below the league average 100 wRC+). The bar is set low for him turning a tidy profit at just $5,000, and his inclusion on DraftDay rosters will add invaluable roster flexibility.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Third Basemen
My Pick: Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics, $11,700
Donaldson has emerged as one of the best third baseman in the game, or more accurately, one of the best players in the game. The scary thing, at least for the Yankees, is that he produces video game numbers against southpaws. The right-handed hitting 28-year old has 379 plate appearances against lefties in his still young big league career, amassing a line of .297/.375/.580 with a 164 wRC+ against them. As his .580 slugging percentage suggests, he’s hitting for power against left-handed pitchers, as he’s totaled a staggering 50 extra base hits against them. That’s 50 extra base hits in 379 plate appearances. Crazy beans my friends, crazy beans.
Value Pick: Juan Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays, $7,850
It’s almost unfathomable that the Brewers opted to keep Lyle Overbay over Francisco. Think they might like a do over? The all-or-nothing slugger has forced his way into the lineup against right-handed pitchers, and he’s hitting .276/.361/.595 with nine homers and a 162 wRC+ in 133 plate appearances. Also, calling him an all-or-nothing slugger might not be apt anymore. That’s because Francisco is working walks this year (10.5 percent walk rate and a radically improved chase rate). As for the all part of the equation, Francisco has insane power and he actually leads the league in average home run and flyball distance this season. Not that his prodigious power needs any help, but playing at Comerica Park today, where the left-handed batter homer park factor is 107, certainly doesn’t hurt. Buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Shortstops
My Pick: Hanley Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers, $11,500
Ramirez reminded people last season that he can be an elite hitter, but such an outburst has set the type of unrealistic expectations that make his stellar start to 2014 a disappointment in the eyes of some. A disappointment he is not, at least to me. He ranks fourth in wRC+ (128) among qualified shortstops, and it’s hard to argue with nine homers, five stolen bases, and an ISO (isolated slugging) north of .200 from a shortstop. All of this said, in order to spend over $11,000 on a non-pitcher, the variables have to be right. They are for Ramirez today. He’s facing a left-handed pitcher, John Danks, in his home ballpark where the right-handed batter homer park factor is 108. The Dodgers shortstop has 1,253 plate appearances against lefties, crushing them to the tune of .307/.385/.530 with a 142 wRC+. Compounding the task of getting Ramirez out for Danks is the fact he’s not too good against right-handed batters. Since 2010, Danks has allowed the 1,927 right-handed batters he’s faced to post a .323 wOBA against him. With those variables in mind, and the fact that shortstop features a dearth of offensive talent, Ramirez looks mighty good even at his lofty cost.
Value Pick: Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians, $7,250
Cabrera is a switch-hitter without a sizable split, so he doesn’t have that playing in his favor. He is roughly an average offensive player, with 97 wRC+, who is hitting second in his team’s order, and facing one of the pitchers that I rank in the bottom third of those that are probable tonight. Red Sox starter Brandon Workman appealed a six-game suspension and will draw the start this evening. In two starts this season he issued six walks against seven strikeouts. A near one-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio is good for a hitter, but not so much for a pitcher. Cabrera isn’t flashy, so I don’t expect a big game from him, but I do expect positive points from a guy who can hit for a little power and swipe a bag on occasion. Furthermore, if Workman struggles, Cabrera will be in prime position to get in on the fun.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Outfielders
My Pick: Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers, $10,800
I pointed out Orioles starter Bud Norris’s shortcomings against right-handed batters above, and that plays into my decision to make Choo my top outfield pick. The struggles of Norris against lefties coupled with Choo’s ability to beat up on right-handed pitchers is a perfect storm. The Rangers outfielder has 1,321 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since 2011, and he’s been a stud ranking sixth among qualified hitters in wRC+ (156) and fourth in on-base percentage (.411). Choo was a 20-20 hitter last year, totaling 21 homers and 20 stolen bases, and while he isn’t on pace to match those marks this year, he does have six homers and three stolen bases under his belt. You should Choo-Choo-Choose Choo tonight.
Middle of the Pack: Kyle Blanks, Oakland Athletics $7,450
If not for an even cheaper outfielder I like, Blanks would make for a fine value pick. Instead, you all get to reap the benefits of spending less on my middle of the pack choice. The Athletics acquired Blanks in a trade with the Padres in the middle of May, and he’s already hit a pair of homers in 34 plate appearances with his new club. The A’s are using the right-handed hitter primarily against left-handed pitching, and it’s easy to understand why. The big man has a wRC+ that is 18 points higher against lefties in the majors, albeit that only amounts to 116 against southpaws in 276 plate appearances. Looking back at his minor league splits, his platoon gap extends there as well. Since 2011 he has a 1.062 OPS in 128 plate appearances against lefties according to Minor League Central. Finally free from the logjam in San Diego, Blanks looks like a bargain in his new role with the Athletics.
Value Pick: Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers, $5,450
I really hate parsing numbers too much, but I’m having a hard time ignoring Castellanos’ significant plate discipline gains over the last couple of weeks. On the season he has just 11 walks, but in the last two weeks he’s worked seven of them. It should come as little surprise that he’s chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone during that time frame. The rookie third baseman has some contact issues, but he’s been a line drive hitting machine. His ability to rip piss rods around the field matches up with his scouting reports. The high scoring Tigers offense is facing erratic knuckleballer R.A. Dickey tonight, and if his knuckleball isn’t dancing, he’ll get lit up. As cheap as Castellanos is, gambling on bad Dickey showing up can yield a huge return on investment. Even if he pitches well, it won’t take much for Castellanos to earn his keep.
Wild Card: Oscar Taveras, $7,350
Get used to Taveras slotting in one of the four outfield spots in this column until his price rises or he demonstrates that his electric stick is going to take a while to translate to the majors. Neither of those things has happened yet, so here he is again. Taveras has already swatted a homer in one of his 14 plate appearances, and he’s only struck out two times. The young outfielder scored a run and drove one in on Tuesday, and while run production is only partly attributable to an individual player, his work the other night still netted him 13 fantasy points. Facing left-handed starter Jason Vargas isn’t a perfect world matchup for the left-handed hitting Taveras, but he demonstrated his hitting chops in 397 plate appearances against lefties in the minors since 2011, hitting .309/.366/.482.
* Batted ball data and splits information comes from that which is provided at FanGraphs unless otherwise stated, and ballpark factors are those found at StatCorner and are for a three-year rolling average.
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