These Fantasy Football Picks to Click are your guide to cashing big in week 10!
Top Pick: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), $15,650 @ (NYJ)
Is there a hotter player on the planet at the moment than Roethlisberger? The correct answer is no, there isn’t a hotter player. In his last two games combined he’s totaled 862 yards passing with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has a goose egg in the interception column for three straight games, and he’s thrown only three all year. Big Ben ranks second only to Aaron Rodgers in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) QB Rating. His traditional stats are superb as well, as he ranks tied for third in touchdown passes (22), second in passing yards (2,731), and fourth with 8.08 Yds/Att. The passing volume is extremely encouraging for continued success too. Roethlisberger is second to Andrew Luck in pass attempts, and he’ll add a big number to his pass attempt total this week facing a pathetic Jets pass defense. PFF ranks the Jets 23rd in pass coverage and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 27th defending the pass. No team has allowed more touchdown passes than the 24 the Jets have ceded (the next closest teams have allowed 18), and no team has fewer interceptions than the one they’ve managed. Big Ben was one of the easiest NFL Picks to Click selections for this week.
Value Pick: Matt Ryan (ATL), $12,400 @ (TB)
In week three, Ryan clowned the Buccaneers totaling 286 yards passing and three touchdowns on a nearly flawless 21-of-24 passing. Oh, and did I mention he did that in less than three quarters of work before exiting the Falcons’ blowout victory? The Falcons are having another disappointing season, but Ryan has been solid ranking 10th in PFF QB Rating and touchdown passes, while also cracking the top 10 in passing yards ranking eighth with 2,306. The Bucs pass defense remains terrible, and PFF ranks them 30th in pass coverage while FO ranks them 31st in pass defense. Ryan is once again in store for a monster fantasy output, and he’s extremely cheap.
Top Pick: LeSean McCoy (PHI), $10,250 vs (CAR)
McCoy’s season got off to a forgettable start after a 2013 season which saw him perform like the best running back in the game. He has righted the ship, though, and he’s eclipsed 20 carries and 80 yards (including a pair of 100-plus yard efforts) in each of his last four games. He also has multiple receptions in three of those games, and the only thing that held his fantasy point scoring in check was a lack of finding pay dirt in that four game stretch. Even including his poor start, McCoy ranks fourth in rushing yards with 622, and he still has a knack for shaking tackles ranking ninth in missed tackles forced at the running back position. The Panthers defense has been dreadful this season, and they rank 19th and 29th in run defense at PFF and FO respectively. The 11 rushing touchdowns the Panthers have allowed this year is the second highest total in the league, so expect both a high yardage output from McCoy, and a touchdown to break his lengthy scoring drought.
Value Pick: Denard Robinson (JAX), $8,000 vs (DAL)
Even when he was starring at quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines, it was Robinson’s legs that were his meal ticket to success. “Shoelace” has emerged from a backfield mess in Jacksonville and ascended to the top of the depth chart. He’s bested 100 yards rushing in two of his last three games, and reached the end zone in a pair of games too. In his lone non-100 yard game in that time frame, which came last week, he ran for 94 yards (including a touchdown) and caught two passes for 10 yards receiving. The converted quarterback isn’t a big bruiser that piles up yards-after-contact, but his 2.2 YCo/Att ranks 28th out of 61 running backs that have played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, and his 5.0 yards-per-carry is tied with Jerick McKinnon and DeMarco Murray for the sixth best mark. At such a cheap cost, he looks like a great play against a Cowboys run defense that PFF ranks 24th and FO ranks 28th.
Top Pick: Julio Jones (ATL), $11,650 @ (TB)
Jones makes for a great pairing with his already highlighted quarterback, Ryan, in DFS games. He, like Ryan, spanked the Bucs in their first showdown. Jones caught nine passes, two of which were touchdown grabs, for 161 yards. He’s an elite receiver that ranks fourth in targets (81), seventh in receptions (53), ninth in receiving yards (734), and tied for 12th out of the 41 wide receivers that have received 50% or more of their team’s targets with 2.33 YPRR. Even in a bad game, Jones has the upside of a long touchdown until the clock strikes zero since he is tied with Antonio Brown for the most catchable deep passes (passes of 20 yards or more) with 11. With the Bucs ranking next to last covering number one wide receivers according to FO, Jones is a strong bet to light them up like a Christmas tree once again.
Value Pick: Michael Floyd (ARI), $7,750 vs (STL)
The Rams rank last in pass defense according to FO, and they rank 25th in pass coverage at PFF. Get your Cardinals receivers ready with Carson Palmer under center and playing well. Palmer ranks 10th in PFF QB Rating among quarterbacks who have taken 25% of their team’s dropbacks, and Floyd should benefit from him being healthy and playing. Floyd’s season has been up and down, so there is risk associated with using him, but facing a Rams defense that FO ranks dead last defending number two wide receivers should prove very fruitful for Floyd. The Notre Dame product has played just 24 less snaps than Larry Fitzgerald this year per PFF, and his 45 targets are tied for second on the team and only seven less than Fitz has received. Steady playing time and a soft matchup make him a great dice roll.
Tourney Pick: John Brown (ARI), $6,500 vs (STL)
Brown is my Tourney Pick of the week. The rookie wide receiver is tied with Floyd for the second most targets on the Cardinals. He also leads the Cardinals with four touchdown receptions, and as a number three receiver he’ll get a boost facing a Rams defense that FO ranks 21st defending “other” wide receivers this year. Far from a model of consistency, Brown is the type of home run threat that warrants using a roster spot on in tournies and shooting for the moon with.
Top Pick: Jimmy Graham (NO), $12,250 vs (SF)
Gronkowski is on bye, and that leaves Graham as the best tight end playing this week. Sure, Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett have matched Graham’s pace this year in many notable categories, but Graham’s track record runs laps around the work of both of them. The freakishly athletic tight end ranks in the top five at the position in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown grabs. Furthermore, his 2.19 YPRR is fourth among tight ends that have received 25% or more of their team’s targets. Even with the addition of Brandin Cooks to the Saints passing attack, Graham remains the apple of Drew Brees’ eye and a worthwhile big ticket item on DFS rosters.
Value Pick: Heath Miller (PIT), $7,650 @ (NYJ)
If you’re dipping into the bargain bin at tight end, Miller is a clear cut pick. My tout of Big Ben as the top quarterback speaks volumes about how I expect the Steelers to attack the Jets, and that’s great news for Miller. Big Ben’s safety blanket is third on the Steelers in targets and second on the team in receiving yards. Miller rounds out the top 10 at tight end in targets and ranks ninth in receiving yards. He should move up the rankings this week taking on a Jets pass defense that FO ranks 30th defending tight ends in the passing game.