Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks to Click 6-6-14
Spending less than $9,000 on a pitcher is unheard of with our Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks.
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Juan Francisco has taken his game to another level this season. For only $7,750 he makes a solid play at DraftDay.
I can’t ever recall touting a starting pitcher so cheap, but I’m doing so today. His battery mate is my top pick at catcher as well, thanks to a perfect blend of variables that include facing a left-handed pitcher in a homer friendly ballpark. The Athletics are well represented with a trio of hitters, and a corner infielder playing north of the border tonight is tantalizing.
Friday is a great night to party with me! I’m talking about my favorite DraftDay game of course, the $3.30 Wiz Walkoff. With so many potential roster combinations don’t limit yourself to one entry. I’ll also be playing in quite a few double-ups and smaller contests as well. Find me in the lobby and join in the fun.
All salaries listed use DraftDay pricing.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Pitchers
My Pick: Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants, $16,500
Cain is set to make his first start since hitting the disabled list with a hamstring injury, and I have no concerns about it lingering. The Bama bred thoroughbred doesn’t sport his juicy stats of yesteryear, but an ugly start at Coors Field is partly to blame. When Cain has gotten into trouble this year, it has been due to the long ball. He’s served up seven homers, all in three starts, and all but two came on the road. Tonight he’ll enjoy home cooking at AT&T Park, and since 2011 he has a 3.10 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP with a 21.5 percent strikeout rate. Furthermore, he’s facing a Mets lineup that isn’t much of a threat to take him deep since they rank tied for 22nd in home runs versus right-handed pitchers this year. Because Las Vegas wasn’t built by setting terrible lines, I’ll take my chances backing the starter on one of the more favored teams.
Value Pick: Eddie Butler, Colorado Rockies, $8,150
I’m not crazy, though it probably looks like I am suggesting using a rookie pitcher making his major league debut at Coors Field. I will hedge this suggestion by stating that he shouldn’t be used across all of your DraftDay lineups, but he’s worth fitting onto a few since he’s much more talented than his tiny price tag suggests. Butler is a flamethrower with an extremely deep arsenal that includes a mid-to-high-90′s fourseam fastball, a low-to-mid-90′s sinker, an upper-80′s cutter, a slider, curveball, and his best pitch which is an upper-80′s changeup. Jason Parks, head of the prospect team at Baseball Prospectus, recently cautioned against reading too much into his decreased strikeout rate this season since the Rockies asked Butler to work on his curveball and took his bat missing cutter away from him. Basically, Butler put together a 2.49 ERA in 11 starts without his best weapon, while being asked to work on things that needed fine tuning, all the while playing in a home ballpark that is extremely homer friendly. It will probably be something of a relief to him pitching in a big league game since he’ll be able to use his full repertoire of pitches. The Dodgers are a tough assignment, but Butler’s ability to miss bats, mix pitches, and induce groundballs has him up to the task.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Catchers
My Pick: Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies, $9,050
Butler’s battery mate, Rosario, is a destroyer of left-handed offerings at Coors Field. The right-handed hitting backstop has 173 plate appearances at home versus southpaws in his career, and he’s hit .335/.376/.752 with a 190 wRC+ and 18 homers. That breaks down to one homer per 9.6 plate appearances. That’s not even human. Expanding to a slightly bigger sample, he has 292 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers in the majors overall (home and away), and he’s hit .325/.361/.647 with a 161 wRC+ against them. The pitcher he’ll be facing tonight, southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, is actually better against right-handed batters than lefties in his young career, but Rosario isn’t your average right-handed bat as the numbers indicate.
Value Pick: Derek Norris, Oakland Athletics, $7,650
The top hitting catcher this season using wRC+ is Jonathan Lucroy with a mark of 147. Why is that important you ask? Because Noris owns a 175 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in 73 plate appearances this year, and a 147 wRC+ (which matches Lucroy’s this season) in 339 plate appearances against lefties in the majors. When making your Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks circumstances are everything. With southpaw Wei-Yin Chen starting for the Orioles the circumstances are perfect for Norris, and he makes for a top flight offensive option at catcher tonight.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – First Basemen
My Pick: Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays, $9,950
Lind is aging like fine wine. He had his best offensive season back in 2009, but struggled for the next few years. The left-handed hitter has settled into a cozy platoon role for the Blue Jays, and he’s improved his walk rate and strikeout rate to career bests thus far. The 30-year old is hitting a robust .349/.423/.560 with a 171 wRC+ this season. Since the start of the 2011 season he’s hit .290/.354/.506 with a 132 wRC+ in 1,171 plate appearances. To put that in perspective, all-world slugger and teammate Edwin Encarnacion has a 138 wRC+ in that time frame against right-handed pitchers. Lind gets the added benefit of facing a pitcher, Lance Lynn, who is befuddled by the task of getting left-handed batters out. The right-handed starter has faced 948 left-handed batters in his career and they’ve hit .258/.365/.422 with a .347 wOBA against him.
Value Pick: Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox, $7,750
Dunn is turning back the clock with his sky high walk rate of 18.3 percent this year. His power isn’t peak years good, but his .217 ISO is nothing to sneeze at. It’s even more Dunn-like against right-handed pitchers at .244. Dunn’s 2011 season was such a dreadful outlier that I’m making the executive decision to look at his work against right-handed pitchers since 2012 instead of 2011, and in 1,064 plate appearances in that time frame he’s hit .221/..344/.466 with a 119 wRC+. He’s taking his cuts tonight against Jered Weaver, and while the Angels starter is continuing to pitch well with diminished velocity, it gives him very little room for error against a mistake punisher like Dunn.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Second Basemen
My Pick: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates, $8,200
Walker is one of the leading offensive players at the keystone position, yet he’s not priced like it. The Bucs second baseman ranks second at the position in homers with 11, tied for ninth in runs with 28, second in RBIs with 34, and second in wRC+ at 130. He’s a switch-hitter who is continuing a career trend of swinging the stick better as a lefty. He’ll get to do so tonight against Brewers right-handed pitcher Kyle Lohse. This is the type of easy to see value that isn’t often found in your Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks.
Value Pick: Tommy La Stella, Atlanta Braves, $6,250
I’m not recommending La Stella because I think he’ll reach the seats, that’s not really a big part of his game. I am, however, recommending him because his ability to make contact is uncanny. In his first 22 big league plate appearances he’s struck out just one time while walking twice. His contact ability was on full display in Triple-A to open the year where he struck out in just 7.1 percent of his plate appearances while walking 12.6 percent of the time. The left-handed hitting second baseman is hitting down order for the Braves, so his run production upside is limited, but I love his matchup with Brandon McCarthy. The Diamondbacks right-handed pitcher struggles with left-handed batters, likely due to his lack of a useful changeup. In his career, McCarthy has faced 1,819 left-handed batters and they’ve hit .265/.319/.422 against him with a .321 wOBA. Since 2012 nearly a quarter of the balls put in play against him have been line drives. If you’re looking to stack some big ticket items on your roster, La Stella is the perfect cheap glue guy who can complement them.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Third Basemen
My Pick: Josh Donaldson, Oakland Athletics, $11,700
Donaldson became a full-time regular with the Athletics in the middle of the 2012 season. Since then he ranks seventh in wRC+ among qualified batters at 168, and owns a triple slash line of .304 /.381/589 in 316 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. The lefty he’s facing today, Chen, is not good against right-handed batters and the 1,242 he’s faced in the majors have hit .265/.317/.442 against him. Things get sweeter, too. Tonight’s game is at Camden Yards where the right-handed batter homer park factor is 109. That warrants mentioning because Chen only induces groundballs at a 36.1 percent clip against right-handed batters over his career.
Value Pick: Juan Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays, $7,750
Francisco is turning into a new man in his first year with the Blue Jays, sort of. Raw power has never been a problem for the third baseman, and he ranks first in home run and flyball average distance this year according to Baseball Heatmaps. A more patient approach, 10 percent walk rate, might be what is helping his raw power play better in games. He smashed his 10th homer of the year yesterday, and he has a mind boggling .325 ISO, the fifth highest mark among batters with at least 100 plate appearances. Francisco has been downright special at the Rogers Centre this year hitting .282/.354/.690 with a 183 wRC+ and seven homers. He’ll be taking his cuts at home tonight, where the left-handed batter homer park factor is 124, against a pitcher that I mentioned above isn’t good against left-handed batters. I fully expect Francisco to give the home crowd and those that make him one of their Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks something to cheer about.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Shortstops
My Pick: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, $9,600
The temptation is there to use Troy Tulowitzki against a left-handed pitcher at Coors Field (and if you’re playing in multiple games, as you should be, you probably should slip him into a few lineups), but Bogaerts is the apple of my eye at shortstop today. Bogaerts is playing in a friendly run scoring ballpark at Comerica Park, against a left-handed pitcher who is putrid against right-handed batters. Southpaw Drew Smyly spent the bulk of his 2012 rookie year starting before being moved to the pen in 2013, and back to the rotation this year. In limited exposure against right-handed batters last year he allowed a solid .304 wOBA, but in his two years as a starter where the Tigers weren’t able to pick and choose who he faced, he’s not fared as well. In 2012 Smyly faced 289 right-handed batters and they hit .254/.321/.438 against him with a .327 wOBA, and the 158 right-handed batters he has faced this year have abused him hitting .298/.373/.500 with a .383 wOBA. Bogaerts is already one of the best offensive shortstops in the game, as he ranks second in wRC+ with a 136 mark. A showdown with Smyly has me licking my chops and ready to click the add button in DraftDay games.
Value Pick: J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles, $7,050
The glut of not similarly talented, but similarly priced shortstops behind Bogaerts necessitates digging deeper if you’re going to veer away from he and Tulowitzki. With a gap in excess of $2,600 between Bogaerts and Hardy, you can consider slipping him into your lineup so that you can use more of your cash on one of your other Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks. Hardy is facing a left-handed pitcher, Tommy Milone, and that’s why I’m giving him a look. Since 2011 Hardy has 555 plate appearances against lefties, and has hit .268/.321/.446 with a 105 wRC+. That’s certainly not jaw-dropping production, but it is above average from a position filled by glove-only guys. Spinning things back to the pitcher he is facing is important, too. Milone is a completely different pitcher on the road than he is at home owning a 3.01 ERA in 209.1 innings pitched, seeing that swell to 4.68 in 223.0 innings on the road.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Outfielders
My Pick: Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland Athletics, $10,800
I’ve already pointed out Orioles’ starter Chen’s struggles with right-handed pitchers, and I’ve also highlighted the homer park factor at Camden Yards for right-handed batters. That leaves just Cespedes numbers against southpaws to discuss, and they’re glorious. The Cuban slugger has 411 plate appearances against lefties in his career, and has hit .281/.350/.516 with a 137 wRC+ and 23 homers against them. In addition to loving his statistics against lefties, I love his batted ball profile against them. He’s hitting 45.2 percent of his balls in play against left-handed pitchers in the air as well. With a batted ball profile like that and well above average power, a game at Camden Yards against a southpaw makes him well worth his five figure cost.
Middle of the Pack: Jonny Gomes, Boston Red Sox, $8,200
The Red Sox have maximized their usage of Gomes using him on the short side of a platoon facing lefties primarily since he joined the organization last year. He broke into baseball in the American League with the Rays, but spent 2009-2011 in the National League. Since rejoining the Junior Circuit with the Athletics in 2012, he’s tallied 466 plate appearances and hit .272/.388/.499 with a 145 wRC+. He’ll enjoy the same park factor and pitcher matchup benefits against Smyly that I discussed above in Bogaerts write-up, and the total package makes Gomes a solid outfield option.
Value Pick: Seth Smith, San Diego Padres, $6,950
Smith, like Gomes, has been utilized well in a platoon by his club. The difference is that the Padres outfielder serves on the heavy side and hits right-handed pitching very well. If you haven’t been paying attention to the Padres and their stinky lineup, you’d probably be surprised to learn that Smith ranks sixth among qualified batters in wRC+ with a 170 mark. He’s sandwiched between stud Giancarlo Stanton and former Athletics teammate Brandon Moss. Even though he’s playing a bit above his skills, the left-handed hitter has long been good against right-handed pitchers. In 2,064 plate appearances against them over his career, he has hit .282/.363/.493 with a 125 wRC+. With tonight’s game being at PETCO Park, a slight depression in Smith’s price is reasonable given the way the park depresses power and runs. His cost however goes way beyond a slight depression. Being able to make Smith one of your Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for less than $7,000 is akin to grand larceny as far as I’m concerned.
Wild Card: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals, $7,350
I was oh so close to selecting Athletics outfielder/first baseman Kyle Blanks (and he’s a good play), but Taveras at the Rogers Centre facing a fellow rookie in Marcos Stroman? Yes please, I’ll take some of that. Stroman has an electric arm, but as a short pitcher (5-foot-9) his fastball can be flat if he leaves it up. The former Duke product was excellent in his first big league start on May 31, but in five bullpen appearances while becoming acclimated to the majors earlier in the year he was knocked around some. I like Stroman long-term, and I imagine he’ll be one of my Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks at some point this year, but his bullpen struggles leave me wanting to see more than one good start before trusting him. Back to Taveras, though. With a hit yesterday he made it five of six games in the big leagues with a hit. The gaudy fantasy points haven’t been there for him yet, but a matchup against a right-handed pitcher (against whom he hit .350/.403/.585 in 871 plate appearances in the upper minors since 2011 according to Minor League Central) in a ballpark that enhances run scoring could be the key to changing that tonight.
* Batted ball data and splits information comes from that which is provided at FanGraphs unless otherwise stated, and ballpark factors are those found at StatCorner and are for a three-year rolling average.
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