Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks to Click 6-3-2023
It’s a fine day for a stack with our Fantasy Baseball Picks to Click.
Brandon Moss at Yankee Stadium is a must play for only $8,600 at DraftDay!
If you aren’t loading up on Orioles in DraftDay games tonight, you’re out of your mind. It’s not all about the O’s, but I do highlight a whopping five birds. A couple of second-year big league pitchers are the apples of my eye on the hill, and a pair of left-handed hitting Athletics are gold at Yankee Stadium.
All salaries listed use DraftDay pricing.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Pitchers
My Pick: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates, $16,500
My infatuation with Cole is not a secret. The big right-hander throws cheddar, but he’s more than a carnival act lighting up the radar gun. He keeps the ball on the ground at a very high rate (52.2 percent groundball rate), limits his walks (7.6 percent walk rate), and strikes batters out at a slightly better than league average rate (20.8 percent strikeout rate). Cole uses his fastball a ton, and it is a worm burner inducing weapon, but his filthy slider is a bat-misser that gives him the potential for a monster strikeout game on any given night. Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard has him ranked eighth of 76 qualified pitchers (100 slider minimum) in whiff/swing percentage, and when hitters put the ball in play, they hammer it into the ground at a high rate. The sophomore big leaguer is a tough assignment for any big league club to draw, but the Padres are a bad one against right-handed pitchers, and that makes him a star tonight. The Friars rank in the bottom 10 in the league in strikeouts against righties, and they rank in the bottom five in OPS. Cole will carve them up.
Value Pick: Zack Wheeler, New York Mets, $13,500
Another hard throwing right-handed second year pitcher facing a lineup that struggles with righties is Wheeler. The former Giants prospect hasn’t been as good as Cole, and he does have more warts in his statistical profile, but there is a ton to like too. He throws hard, and both his fourseam fastball and sinker rank well in whiff/swing percentage. He backs those with a changeup, slider, and curveball. His slider draws a lot of wood, but it’s a strong pitch for coaxing groundballs, which is something Wheeler does at a high rate on all of his batted balls (53.4 percent groundball rate). Wheeler’s curveball is a thing of beauty, and it’s a legitimate out pitch that ranks fifth in whiff/swing percentage on the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboard among the 73 starting pitchers that have thrown a minimum of 100. His full bag of goodies has helped him post a hearty strikeout rate of 22.7 percent, and while his walk rate isn’t all that desirable, he’s issued just three in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. The Cubs have struck out in 22.4 percent of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, and when they aren’t striking out they’re doing very little damage posting a team OPS of .633, worst in the league. Wheeler has a cake matchup that he’ll make the most of.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Catchers
My Pick: John Jaso, Oakland Athletics, $8,050
The Athletics have handled Jaso perfectly, shielding him from lefties, and unleashing him on right-handed pitchers. With righty Hiroki Kuroda on the bump for the Yankees, Jaso is a sweet option at catcher. He has 1,248 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in his career, and has hit .276/.378/.427 with a 130 wRC+. Since 2012 he’s been a terror for righties though. Among batters who have totaled 600 or more plate appearances since 2012, Jaso ranks ninth in wRC+ with a mark of 152. He’s sandwiched between Chris Davis and Freddie Freeman. Try to wrap your head around that. He’ll have the added benefit of playing on the road tonight at Yankee Stadium. The left-handed batter homer park factor there is 133. Ignore Jaso at your own peril.
Value Pick: Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds, $7,750
Mesoraco doesn’t have a pronounced split, and he’s not facing an opposite handed starter that has their own split problems, but he is showing a huge boost in power and he’s playing at his homer friendly ballpark tonight. According to Baseball Heatmaps, the Reds backstop ranks 29th in home run and flyball batted ball distance, seeing that number jump from 275.70 feet last year to 298.42 feet. He’s hitting more flyballs this year, and that’s a great thing at Great American Ballpark, where the right-handed batter homer park factor is 139. Mesoraco and the Reds will be facing Tim Lincecum in the series opener, and while Lincecum isn’t concerned about a blister that forced him out of his last start early, it will be interesting to see if it impacts his command and control tonight. The two-time Cy Young award winner already struggles with baserunners (1.54 WHIP through 11 starts), so being anything less than 100 percent makes him ripe for picking with Mesoraco.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – First Basemen
My Pick: Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks, $11,800
Coors Field is not only a homer haven, run scoring is also through the roof there. A star offensive player like Goldschmidt gets a nice boost in Denver, and that’s not the only reason to love him today. The right-handed hitter has splits working in his favor, too. He’s killed left-handed pitching in his career, hitting .314/.397/.593 with a 161 wRC+ in 464 plate appearances. He’s not the only person with notable splits in the batter versus pitcher matchup either. Rockies lefty Jorge de la Rosa is really bad against right-handed batters. The southpaw has faced 3,467 right-handed batters in his career, and they’ve slashed .267/.356/.445 with a .350 wOBA. Even though he’s improved against them throughout his career, his .258/.339/.423 line since 2010 is nothing to write home about.
Value Pick: Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers, $8,850
There isn’t a platoon advantage to be gained by using the switch-hitting Martinez, as he’s been equally awesome against lefties and righties in his career. Today he’ll be facing a right-handed pitcher, and the reason I’ll be using him is two-fold. The primary reason is that he’s the toughest qualified batter in the majors to strikeout this year. Secondly, he’s not a slap singles hitter. Martinez is sporting a .260 ISO, the 11th best mark among qualified hitters. When you combine his propensity for making contact with his ability to put a charge into the ball, you’ve got a steal priced less than $9,000.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Second Basemen
My Pick: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates, $8,000
I suggested Walker at third base yesterday, and he delivered. Today he fits better at his actual position, second base. I won’t rehash the points from yesterday, since he’s once again facing a right-handed pitcher, but I will add an extra little nugget that should nudge more DraftDay gamers towards using him. Padres starter Jesse Hahn, who was acquired from the Rays in the offseason, is making his first big league start after never having made a start at the Triple-A level. His minor league numbers are quite good, but he’s not an elite prospect, and an above average hitter like Walker is a huge step up in competition for Hahn.
Value Pick: Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore Orioles, $6,500
Schoop’s offensive numbers don’t warrant being used in DraftDay games, but the suggestion to use him today isn’t so much about him as it is about who he is facing. Rangers lefty Joe Saunders struggles against right-handed batters much like I struggle to understand quantum physics. Saunders has faced 4,497 right-handed batters in his career, and they’ve hit a robust .289/.350/.477 against him with a .358 wOBA. Those numbers are aided by some sporadic passable numbers against them very early in his career. Since 2010 there isn’t a single qualified starter who has been more pathetic against right-handed batters than Saunders when sorting by wOBA. I’d be somewhat shocked if he throws a pitch in the fifth inning. When the Orioles jump all over him, Schoop has a shot to join the fun.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Third Basemen
My Pick: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles, $9,050
I don’t love Machado’s price, but I want as many right-handed batters as I can get against Saunders. Machado has received the bulk of his plate appearances from second in the Orioles order, and that puts him in prime position to get as many cracks as possible. He’s recorded multiple hits in back-to-back games, and he ordered the combo meal in his last outing, reaching the seats once and adding a stolen base. Recovery from torn knee ligaments sidelined Machado through April, and shaking the rust off took some time. It looks like he’s rounding into form, though, and he has reached base at least one time in 16 of his last 19 games played (I know, I know, arbitrary start and end dates). It would be more than a mild upset if he doesn’t bump that up to reaching base in 17 of his last 20 games.
Value Pick: Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals, $7,600
Rendon’s season has been up and down. He came out of the gates like a man on fire, but has sputtered in the month of May. Overall, his season line is good but not great with him owning a 106 wRC+. The highly touted prospect, who earned most of his praise as a prospect with his lumber, has cut down on the strikeouts from his rookie year while upping the power. Rendon is hitting more balls in the air this year, and his flyball and home run average distance have jumped from 279.96 feet last year to 292.41 feet this year. That makes his jump in ISO from .131 to .171 look legit. His improved production in the majors isn’t the only reason I will be rostering Rendon heavily today. He faces a matchup against a starting pitcher that looks a lot more like the guys he was facing in the upper minors early last year than the guys he’s faced since settling into a regular gig in the majors.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Shortstops
My Pick: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, $9,200
21-year old players are not supposed to make the transition to life in the Show look so darn easy, but that’s just what Bogaerts is doing. His 133 wRC+ trails only Troy Tulowitzki’s mark among qualified shortstops. Bogaerts plate discipline belies his age, and he’s incredibly steady. He’s failed to reach base in only eight of 55 games played this year. Bogaerts has earned the second spot in the Red Sox order. After a rough game for the majority of the Red Sox lineup against Justin Masterson, the team should breathe a sigh of relief facing green starter T.J. House. That increases Bogaerts run production upside from the two-hole.
Value Pick: J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles, $7,150
Hardy joins infield mates Schoop and Hardy in the stack against Saunders, but unlike that duo, he has a huge platoon split that further cements him in today’s article. The 31-year old shortstop goes from a below average offensive player against right-handed pitchers with a 89 wRC+ in his career, to a well above average hitter when facing southpaws. He has a 112 wRC+ in 1,259 appearances against lefties. Gamers using Hardy and his tiny cost against their salary cap will get a ton of bang for their buck.
Fantasy Baseball Daily Picks – Outfielders
My Pick: Nelson Cruz, Baltimore Orioles, $12,350
Cruz returns to his old stomping grounds tonight, and while added motivation is a talking point, it’s not exactly quantifiable. What can be quantified is the crazy production in his first year with the Orioles. He’s hitting .314/.384/.672 and has already crushed a major league leading 20 homers. It doesn’t sound like the left hand of Cruz, one that was struck by a pitch over the weekend, is going to keep him out of the lineup tonight. Speaking of left-hands, Saunders might want to reconsider using his to throw pitches to Cruz. The former Ranger is a .290/.365/.529 hitter with a 133 wRC+ in 904 plate appearances against lefties, and I’ve already established that Saunders is a train wreck against right-handed batters. This is a match made in heaven.
Middle of the Pack: Brandon Moss, Oakland Athletics, $8,600
I gushed about Jaso’s ability to rough up right-handed pitchers above, and I even went as far as pointing out how well he’s hit against them since 2012. What I didn’t do was add a link to the FanGraphs leaderboard, and that’s because I was saving it for now. As I said in Jaso’s write-up, he ranks ninth in wRC+ among batters with more than 600 plate appearances since 2012. Ranked two spots above him is Moss. The first base and outfield eligible power hitter has a 156 wRC+ in 824 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since 2012. This season he is tied for 12th in wRC+, and the once regular victim of strike three is is only fanning in 19.7 percent of his plate appearances. When he’s putting the ball in play, he’s doing his usual flyball thing hitting more than 50 percent of batted balls in the air. At Yankee Stadium, hitting the ball in the air regularly results in trotting the bases. Moss has enormous upside, and all things considered, he’s a steal at $8,600.
Value Pick: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis Cardinals, $7,350
Taveras was held hitless yesterday, and he should probably be optioned back to the minors. Alright, sarcasm aside, he’s a supremely talented young hitter who forced a promotion after tearing the upper minors apart. Taveras has 395 plate appearances in Triple-A, and he’s hit .316/.358/.495 with 40 extra base hits. He already showed his power off in the bigs hitting his first homer in his major league debut. Does this sound like a guy that is only worth a little over seven grand? I didn’t think so, and this low price won’t last much longer.
Wild Card: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, $9,400
Completing the Orioles stack is Jones. The Orioles center fielder has a strange reverse platoon split in the majors having tallied a 95 wRC+ against lefties and a 111 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. That’s essentially the only knock I’ve got against Jones. He’s a right-handed batter facing Saunders, and he’ll be doing so hitting either third or cleanup in the Orioles lineup. The Orioles are going to trounce Saunders, and having a power/speed threat that is in the heart of the order laying the beatdown is a must.
* Batted ball data and splits information comes from that which is provided at FanGraphs unless otherwise stated, and ballpark factors are those found at StatCorner and are for a three-year rolling average.
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