Top Five Fantasy Football Wide Receivers - Week Two
Expect to win big using these top five fantasy football wide receivers.
5- Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers, $11,550
Eddie Lacy cleared the first step of the league’s concussion protocol per NBC Sports, and his presence in the offense would be a good thing for the unit as a whole. That said, the Jets run defense was as stout as expected in week one, allowing just 25 yards rushing on 15 carries to the Raiders. Derek Carr didn’t exactly pick the Jets secondary apart, but he did throw for two touchdowns and zero interceptions, and his receivers aren’t the cream of the crop. Aaron Rodgers is a tad bit better than Carr, and he’s more than capable of picking apart the Jets awful secondary with a receiving group that puts the Raiders receiving corps to shame. One of Rodgers’ top targets will be Cobb. Only two pass catchers on the Packers were targeted more than five times, and Cobb was thrown at nine times. He hauled in six of those targets, turning one into a touchdown. His yardage total, 58, left something to be desired though. Expect another heavy work load, this time against a secondary that stands in stark contrast to the Legion of Boom he faced in the season opener.
4- Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts, $9,850
Old reliable Wayne showcased that he’s healthy, and Andrew Luck threw his way a ton, 13 times to be exact, in the season opener. He dropped one catchable ball per Pro Football Focus, but wrangled in nine passes for 98 yards. The 35-year old receiver wasn’t a big play threat, breaking off a long reception of just 22 yards and averaging 10.9 yards-per-reception, but the overall effort was strong in his first game that meant something since returning from a season ending 2013 injury. The Colts are playing in a game with the biggest total on the board, currently sitting at 53.5 points according to Vegas Insider’s VI Consensus. The Colts are a field goal favorite, and they are projected to hang a big number on the scoreboard. Since the bulk of their damage should be done through the air (the Eagles were strong against the run in week one, a trend that extends back to last season), another high volume of targets figure to be headed Wayne’s way. That high target total should provide him a higher floor than ever so slightly more expensive teammate T.Y. Hilton without sacrificing in the ceiling category. Both, however, could be in line for big games since neither of the Eagles starting cornerbacks, Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams, are good. Both posted negative coverage scores according to Pro Football Focus, with Fletcher ranking 51st out of 110 cornerbacks that played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, and Cary Williams ranking 82nd. That duo helped make undrafted rookie free agent signing Allen Hurns a household name with him catching four passes for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie Marquise Lee turned in a fine first game as well with six catches for 62 yards. All signs point in favor of a hearty effort from Wayne this week.
3- Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons, $13,000
Jones is a remarkably gifted wide receiver who reels in just about everything thrown his way (seven receptions on eight targets according to Pro Football Focus, ESPN credits him with nine targets). He is a huge play threat whether it be stretching the defense or beating them after the catch. He failed to reach pay dirt in week one, but that’s really the only blemish in his stat line. He totaled 116 yards receiving at an average of 16.6 per-reception with a 7.7 yards-per-catch coming after the catch. Pro Football Focus has a sweet signature stat called Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), and Jones led receivers with a 25% target threshold in 2013 with a 2.74 YPRR, one spot ahead of Calvin Johnson at 2.72 YPRR. In week one it was much the same from Jones with a YPRR of 2.58 (a mark that would have been good for fourth highest last season). Like I said, he’s gifted and an elite player at the position. Steve freakin’ Smith totaled seven receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown (80 yards coming on his touchdown reception) against the Bengals secondary, and Jones is much better than the diminutive Raven. Roddy White and Devin Hester joined Jones in barbecuing the Saints, but Jones is the unquestioned top pass catcher for the Falcons.
2- Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos, $13,800
Even facing tough coverage from 2013’s top cover corner Vontae Davis, Thomas was still targeted a whopping 11 times by Peyton Manning, a team high for the Broncos. That speaks volumes about what Manning thinks of Thomas, and with a much easier assignment this week, the talented wide out will turn more of his targets into production. The Chiefs lost two key pieces of their defense in the opener with starting defensive end Mike DeVito suffering a season ending injury, and more importantly, starting linebacker Derrick Johnson going down for the year. A weakened front seven will do the secondary no favors, and one week after getting spanked by Jake Locker, Justin Hunter, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright, things get leaps and bounds more difficult with The Sheriff and company. Chiefs starting cornerback Sean Smith scored barely above average in coverage last year by Pro Football Focus, and fellow starter Marcus Cooper was even worse and ranked 77th out of 110 cornerbacks that played 25% of their teams snaps. Neither should be more than a speed bump to a gigantic effort from Thomas, and with the Broncos projected to score more points than anyone on this week (they’re the biggest favorite in the game with the second highest total), the sky truly is the limit.
1- Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers, $11,900
I teased that more than one receiver got a bunch of looks from Rodgers in week one in Cobb’s write-up, as Nelson was actually the most targeted Packers wideout. Nelson was targeted 14 times, the second highest total of any wide receiver in week one. He caught nine of his targets, dropping one catchable ball, and failing to reach the end zone. Nelson is one of the top wide receivers in the game, catching balls from one of the top passers in the game, all the while facing what appears on paper to be one of the worst secondaries in football. That makes for a favorable projection for Nelson this week. It will take more than one good game of metrics on Antonio Allen to convince me that he’s made a smooth transition from safety to cornerback. Dee Milliner missed week one with an injury, and while the team is hopeful he’ll be back in week two, a less than 100 percent Milliner could actually be an asset to the Packers since he was a below average cover corner when healthy last year. The other names that are in the Jets cornerback rotation are Darrin Walls and Kyle Wilson, and both graded as below average cover corners by Pro Football Focus last year. Neither impressed in week one either. Nelson should rank near the top of the heap in points scored this week, and he comes at a slight discount from the other studs at the position. The combination of cost and expected production makes him the best option of my top five fantasy football wide receivers in week two.
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