Super Bowl Fantasy Football Picks to Click
With some freebies up for grab, use these picks to click in your Super Bowl Fantasy Football Freeroll lineup!
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson versus Tom Brady
The marquee matchup of this Super Bowl Fantasy Football starts at the top with the quarterbacks. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would argue Russell Wilson is the better passer than Tom Brady, and while volume plays a big factor in Brady compiling a sizable advantage in passing yards and touchdowns, the former Wolverine also edged out the youngster in Pro Football Focus (PFF) QB Rating by the smallest of margins at 91.12 versus 90.28. It’s not all about the arm though, and Wilson has two distinct advantages that get him the nod as the better option. The defending Super Bowl champion quarterback is facing a strong Patriots defense, but one that ranks behind his own defense by the measure of both PFF and Football Outsiders. The other, and more obvious, difference is in each player’s rushing exploits. Brady is a statue, and Wilson was the leader in rushing yards at the quarterback position while finishing 17th among all players with 849 yards rushing this season. Even in a messy outing in which Wilson threw four interceptions in the NFC Championship Game, he still scored 18.86 fantasy points in DraftDay games.
Running Backs
Shane Vereen versus LeGarrette Blount
The sledding will be tough on the ground for the Patriots running backs since the Seahawks allowed only two backs to total over 100 yards rushing in a game, Jamal Charles in week 11 and DeMarco Murray in week six. Packers bruising back Eddie Lacy managed only 73 yards rushing on 21 attempts in the NFC Championship game. And if you’re looking for a cheap rushing touchdown, those are hard to come by as well as the Seahawks allowed just eight rushing touchdowns during the regular season. LeGarrette Blount is the bell cow back, and Bill Belichick is likely to try and establish balance so that the Seahawks pass rushers can’t simply pin their ears back and tee off on Brady. That said, Shane Vereen makes for a nifty swerve play. FO ranked the Seahawks 18th defending running backs in the passing game, and that plays into Vereen’s hands. Blount is slight favorite to outscore Vereen based on my expectation of workload split, but things are close enough that this is the type of pick that sets a team apart in a winner-take-all freeroll like the Big Game Freeroll.
Flex
Rob Gronkowski versus Marshawn Lynch
This is a juggernaut matchup of talented playmakers. My money will be on Rob Gronkowski, despite the brash statements from members of the Seahawks secondary suggesting being physical with the talented tight end will be enough to slow him down. Marshawn Lynch is facing a Patriots run defense that PFF ranks sixth and FO ranks 14th. That’s a sizable discrepancy in ranking, but what scares me off is that the Patriots allowed only six rushing touchdowns this year. They allowed a whopping 129 yards rushing to Justin Forsett in the Divisional Playoff Round, but kept him out of the end zone. A similar high yardage output with zero touchdowns is within reach for Lynch, but I’m expecting more from Gronk. The Seahawks defense is fantastic, but they ranked just 18th at FO defending tight ends, and this is the best one in the game and the favorite target of Brady.
Wide Receiver 1
Julian Edelman versus Doug Baldwin
This is a no contest, Julian Edelman is the easy pick. He’s a far superior receiver to Doug Baldwin, and while both the Seahawks and Patriots feature shutdown cornerbacks in Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis, respectively, Sherman is relegated to locking down one side of the field which means Edelman can be moved and avoid him in coverage. Revis travels with the receiver he’s assigned to defend as opposed to guarding a side of the field, and that means Baldwin is in trouble. Grab Edelman, and don’t look back.
Wide Receiver 2
Brandon LaFell versus Jermaine Kearse
Brandon LaFell is a much better wide receiver than Jermaine Kearse, their statistics this season bear that out. However, LaFell is the victim of a numbers crunch and is facing a tougher assignment. There are only so many footballs to be distributed, and LaFell is behind Gronkowski and Edelman in the pecking order, and Vereen might be in line to get more targets this week, too, due to the difference in coverage grades against number two receivers and running backs for the Seahawks defense. FO ranks the Seahawks sixth shutting down number two wide receivers, whereas the Patriots rank 17th. With Paul Richardson injured, Kearse has stepped into the number two wide receiver gig and he played 67 snaps compared to 68 for Baldwin in the NFC Championship Game according to PFF. The third-year pro did nothing in regulation against the Packers, but he did catch the game-winning touchdown, and was targeted six times according to ESPN. Use Kearse.
Wide Receiver 3
Danny Amendola versus Ricardo Lockette
Neither Danny Amendola or Ricardo Lockette inspire much confidence in me that they’ll produce noteworthy numbers in the Super Bowl, but you have to pick one. Opportunity is what sets Lockette apart from Amendola. The former Rams receiver is buried behind better pass catchers on the Patriots and ran only 19 routes in the AFC Championship Game according to PFF. Lockette, on the other hand, ran 29 pass routes and is another face in a mess of mediocrity in the Seahawks pass-catching corps.
Kicker
Stephen Gostkowski versus Steven Hauschka
Handicapping kickers is often an exercise in futility, and with the game featuring just a one point spread according to Vegas Insider, I’m rolling with the more accurate kicker, Stephen Gostkowski. The Patriots kicker and Steven Hauschka both attempted 37 field goals this year, and Gostkowski made 35 while Hauschka made 31. You could flip a coin to make your decision and I wouldn’t fault you for that approach, but forced to make a pick, Gostkowski is the guy.
Defense
Seattle Seahawks versus New England Patriots
The Patriots defense held the edge over the Seahawks defense in sacks and turnovers forced by three and one in the regular season, but the Seahawks allowed 59 fewer points this year. As I noted above, the game features a one point spread according to Vegas Insider with the Patriots favored to win. That’s close enough to make it worth digging a little deeper and looking for something to tip the scale since both teams should allow nearly the same amount of points scored if the line holds true. That edge comes in the form of pass protection and sacks allowed. PFF graded both team’s poorly in pass protection, but the Patriots were one of the worst teams in the league protecting their quarterback and earned the fifth worst pass protection grade. This was the toughest pick, but I’ll use the Seahawks.