Fantasy Basketball Picks 2-5-15
These fantasy basketball picks will help you find values on tonight’s small slate!
Last night’s action saw Russell Westbrook (60.75) dominating once again, while D.J. Augustin (20.25) struggled on a back-to-back. James Harden (42) was efficient, but still fell short of value, while Brook Lopez (15) had an awful shooting night. Jared Sullinger (28.50) showed up late to practice, which led to him coming off the bench and hurting his value. Chandler Parsons (36.75) had another great night for his price, and JJ Barea (22.25) made his way to value once again. Ed Davis (35.75) had a huge night at a very low ownership %, while his teammate Jordan Clarkson (6.5) disappeared. Tonight is just a 4 game slate, so I’ll get right to the point.
These plays are intended to help you gain a solid return on salary (at least 2.5X, with the ideal level being 3x or higher) with each player you roster. Sometimes I will highlight a minimum salary player, and the intent is to maximize the number of roster spots where you have potential to hit 3X salary. Keep in mind that a minimum-priced player on DraftDay is even more valuable than a minimum-salary player elsewhere, due to the large gap in pricing with a $100,000 cap. Another key to remember is that in DFS, late injury news can be HUGE when deciding your final rosters. Just because someone was a great play in the morning doesn’t necessarily mean that better options won’t arise throughout the day. Monitor Twitter closely before locking in your lineups.
Today’s Top Plays
Guard:
Chris Paul ($17,850) at Cleveland – Finding CP3 at under 18% of your cap is a steal, especially in a game with a 207 point total. Paul likes to get up for big games, and this is by far the biggest of the night. Paul has been tremendously consistent, with at least 26 FP in all but one game this season, and is averaging 41.9 FP per contest on the year. His usage rate is spike up to 34.8% with JJ Redick off the floor, and I’m targeting him heavily this evening.
Goran Dragic ($12,250) at Portland – I am looking for exposure to the game with the highest total on the night (212) and Dragic’s price tag makes perfect sense. He has 40+ FP upside and comes it at a mid-range price tag. He is averaging 33.4 minutes per game and a fast paced game against Damian Lillard and company suits him well.
J.J. Barea ($7,350) at Sacramento –An interesting stat about Barea is that his usage rate has bumped from 23.9% to 26.9% with Rajon Rondo out. When you compare this number to the 17.8% that Devin Harris sees, he is the no-brainer play tonight. Granted, these numbers are slightly skewed because Barea originally saw more time with the second unit, but not anymore. He is a big part of this offense with Rondo out, and his price tag allows to to fit some studs in your lineup.
Jamal Crawford ($10,400) at Cleveland - I am ecstatic about playing Crawford tonight, and he will likely find his way onto every one of my lineups. With J.J. Redick out, his minutes have bumped up significantly (he played 37 last game with a solid 18/5/4 line), and the Cavaliers have struggled against guards all season long. He is a confident shooter, and a great scorer. I’m looking forward to his expanded role tonight.
Forward:
LeBron James ($19,950) vs Los Angeles Clippers - I don’t need to tell you why LeBron makes for an elite play tonight. His usage rate has spiked to 38.1% over the last month, and he has been tremendous during the Cavs’ resurgence. On a short slate, you’ll be hard pressed to catch up if Bron goes for 60 FP. Get him in your lineups tonight.
Chandler Parsons ($11,550) at Sacramento - I highlighted Parsons last night, and he didn’t disappoint. I’m going back to the well on this one, as his usage rate has gotten a bump of almost 4% without Rajon Rondo on the court. He has at least 31.5 FP in three straight games, and I expect him to keep it going tonight.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($10,100) vs Washington - Many DFSers are flocking to Al Jefferson with Kemba Walker out, but I’m still riding the MKG train. His usage has bumped up to a solid 23.1% without Kemba, while Big Al’s numbers have stayed about the same. He is getting huge minutes, and has back-to-back double doubles against Denver and this same Washington team. He is the only player I’m targeting from Charlotte tonight.
Center:
DeAndre Jordan ($15,200) at Cleveland - You may have noticed that my plays are Clipper-heavy, but I LOVE the matchup for Jordan tonight. He comes in at a discount of $4,500 from DeMarcus Cousins, and while Cousins is still the top play, Jordan has a great chance to smash value tonight. He had a 22/20 game last time out against Brooklyn, and posted a solid 19/12 against these same Cavs on January 16th. His usage rate without JJ Redick on the court is a solid 20.1%, and I expect another monster performance out of the big man.
Other targets for tonight: DeMarcus Cousins ($19,700), Blake Griffin ($16,600), Al-Faroq Aminu ($7,700), Monta Ellis ($14,400), and Brian Roberts ($6,650),
You can find me on Twitter @BigItaly42 and I’d love to help you out with any questions you have about determining salary, finding value, or any lineup construction tips!